BEST PICTURE
This year there were eight films nominated for Best Picture, and all of them were good, even very good. While there are a few whose win would frustrate me, I cannot say any of the films had strong weaknesses, and could understand why all of them were somebody's favorite film this year. That said, many of the films can be easily counted out from the chance of winning the award. Though not as bulletproof since Argo won two years ago, the lack of a Best Director nomination ends the chances of Whiplash and The Theory of Everything, and falls just short of ending the chances of American Sniper and Selma. Those tow have enough discussion factor so they can't be completely counted out, but each have enough going against them that a win would be incredibly shocking. The Imitation Game is a great and baity film, but for some reason seems to be more respected than loved. That leaves the three films that have dominated all of the awards thus far: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood. Though Boyhood doesn't have as many nominations as the other two (6 versus 9 each) It has a ton of passion and was by far the critical favorite. That said, when it comes to industry awards the film's fallen short, only taking an award from the American Cinema Editors. Birdman, meanwhile, has nearly swept. This suggests that Birdman will be the winner, as Boyhood seems to be more of a critics film, while Birdman has grasped the industry itself. As such, I believe Birdman will take this award. The Grand Budapest is a potential spoiler, but perhaps too comedic and fanciful to win over the other two films, though could wind up with the award if the other two films split votes.
Will win: Birdman
Could win: Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST DIRECTOR
For the first time since the amount of Best Picture nominees was increased to 10, a film managed to be nominated for Best Director without a nomination for Best Picture. As impressive as that is, it also means the director has virtually no chance of winning, so don't bother marking Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher) on your ballots. Also out is Morten Tyldum, who simply doesn't have enough support to expect anything more to come of his work on The Imitation GAme. This leaves the same trio of films as Picture vying for the award. Once again, Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) is probably in third due to the fact that his style, while finally being recognized, may turn off some people. This narrows the field down to Richard Linklater (Boyhood) and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman). This race is much closer than Best Picture. While Innaritu won the Director's Guild Award, the most reliable predictor, I believe Linklater will wind up winning this award. Even people who weren't as in love with Boyhood respect the director's commitment. The fact that Linklater spent twelve years making the film is a cool story, and the fact that the film came out as good as it did leads me to believe that Linklater will pull this victory off, even without his film winning Best Picture
Will win: Richard Linklater-Boyhood
Could win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Birdman, Wes Anderson-The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ACTOR
This is easily the most open of the acting categories this year. Both Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) have a great shot at winning this year. Redmayne seems the more likely choice, due to his Screen Actors guild, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, although Keaton has won his fair share of awards as well. Keaton, meanwhile, is starring in the likely Best Picture winner, giving him a definite boost over Redmayne, whose film is one of the least likely to win the prize. That said, Redmayne is portraying Stephen Hawking a beloved public figure, and one with a debilitating disease, both traits that have helped many actors win awards in the past. I'd say Redmayne will win it at this point, but a victory by Keaton certainly wouldn't be surprising. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) has been gaining traction lately due to his film's box office success and the story behind the film, but not enough to be a real threat to the two leaders in the race.
Will win: Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton-Birdman
BEST ACTRESS
Not much of a competition this year. Many great actresses in great roles, but Julianne Moore (Still Alice) will finally win an Oscar this year for her portrayal of a woman who is diagnosed with Alzheimers.
Will win: Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Could Win: None-Moore's got it
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another locked up category. J.K. Simmons gives an incredibly intense and powerful performance in Whiplash, and will be rewarded with an Oscar tonight.
Will win: J.K. Simmons-Whiplash
Could win: Another lock
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
A little less locked up than Lead Actress or Supporting Actor, this category nonetheless has a heavy favorite. Patricia Arquette's heartfelt performance in Boyhood is the film's surest bet at a victory. Emma Stone could conceivably win if they go all in for Birdman (A situation which still wouldn't be enough for Edward Norton to top J.K. Simmons) but in all likelihood Arquette will be the one walking away victorious.
Will win: Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone-Birdman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This category narrows down to the same three contenders as Best Picture and director, but at slightly different levels. Though Boyhood being one of the strongest contenders for Best Picture would seem to help it here, it's loss at the Writer's Guild awards was a big hit. As well, the freeform style of the film may lead to it being seen as more of a directing based film than a screenplay based one. It doesn't get more writing based, however, than The Grand Budapest Hotel. This film has a ton of support and has won many awards for its writing, with screenplay being one of the most friendly categories towards comedies in the entire ceremony. However, unless there is some notable reason for it to lose best screenplay, the Best Picture winner will usually take the category it is in. For that reason, I believe Birdman will wind up winning this award, likely only a few votes ahead of Budapest.
Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Boyhood
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
As the frontrunners for Best Picture are all in the Original Screenplay category, this category is left somewhat more open. Inherent Vice being the only nominee not also nominated for Best Picture means that its the only film that can be counted out for the win outright. American Sniper is likely in a weak position as well, as it has many detractors out there who will disagree with the politics they feel are presented in the film. Whiplash landed here somewhat as a result of strange category rules (it is "Adapted" from a short film whose sole purpose was to get this feature made) and could potentially take the win, but will likely fall to one of its two talkier brethren. The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are both British, baity true stories with a lot of character development and interesting ideas brought in. The Theory of Everything managed to win the British equivalent of this category over Imitation, but in the end I think this will be the consolation prize for The Imitation Game, a film that could have been a major contender for Best Picture, but one which will likely go home with only one win to its name.
Will win: The Imitation Game
Could win: The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman was filmed to look like it was one long shot. While it's no secret that the film was done in more than one shot, with editing used to blend the takes together, it was still full of long tracking shots that moved from character to character, while still finding a way to be interesting from a lighting and framing standpoint. Lubezki's winning his second award in as many years.
Will win: Birdman
Could win: Nothing, this is the most locked up tech award of the night.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
In this category the rule is the flashier, the better. This counts out Inherent Vice and Mr. Turner, both of which had realistic costumes, though were likely too down to Earth to stand out. Maleficent isn't held back by its reviews, this category is not often aided by being a Best Picture nominee, but will likely miss out due to its early release date and competition with Into the Woods. Woods is the more likely fantasy nominee, but even it will likely fall short to The Grand Budapest Hotel. Budapest is a marvel of visual design, and the costumes were a huge part of that which will not likely go unnoticed.
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Into the Woods, Maleficent
BEST FILM EDITING
As Birdman's lack of a nomination in this category showed, having visible editing is often the clearest way to win this award. As such, American Sniper or Whiplash would seem to be the favorites. Whiplash especially has very showy editing, with a couple of key sequences standing out in a major way. However, the pure amount of support for The Grand Budapest Hotel could carry it to a win here. The most likely outcome, however, is that Boyhood wins. Boyhood took twelve years of footage and edited them down into a 2 hour and 45 minute film which managed to keep an interesting pace and perspective of time. Voters will not likely overlook that, but if they do look out for Whiplash to pick up its slack.
Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Sniper
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
This is often the most unpredictable category each year. Any of the three films nominated could wind up with the win. Foxcatcher is the least likely victor, as there is only one character with notable makeup, although the film does clearly have some support. In the past the film with the most showy creature makeup would be the easy winner, however in recent years, with fantasy and sci fi turning more and more to CGI, the award has gone to period pieces with a lot of hairstyling more often, and with a visually splendid film like The Grand Budapest Hotel nominated, it would be foolish to bet against it. Sometimes, however, surprises happen and one has to be foolish to predict them to happen. For that reason I believe that Guardians of the Galaxy, with its insistence on using makeup to create fantastical creatures in every possible case, will wind up winning this award for its intricate and large scale prosthetic work.
Will win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Foxcatcher
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel wins it. One has only to see pictures of the films sets to understand that this is a foregone conclusion.
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Nothing, really. This one's in the bag.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat is nominated twice here, for his two outstanding scores for The Imitation Game and THe Grand Budapest Hotel. Both scores stand a very strong chance at winning here, with Grand Budapest being slightly more likely due to the film's overall support. However, its very likely that the two films will cancel each other out, and the win will instead go to Johann Johannson's score for The Theory of Everything. Nonetheless, it's a close three way race.
Will win: The THeory of Everything
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The THeory of Everything
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Probably the only category that can beat Makeup and Hairstyling for randomness, this category often throws a curveball when it comes to the winner. As such it's hard to truly count anything out, though I'm not Gonna Miss You (Glenn Campbell: I'm Not There) and Grateful (Beyond the Lights) certainly seem like longshots. Lost Stars (Begin Again) is the kind of song that may potentially hit the right notes with voters, and Everything is Awesome is easily the biggest hit of the five, and a great opportunity to make up for snubbing The Lego Movie for best Animated Feature. However, when this category has a frontrunner that can be a very difficult steamroller to stop. As such Glory, which manages to get across an important message without sacrificing aesthetic strength, will be hard to beat. As well, this is the Academy's opportunity to make up for dropping the ball in regards to the film Selma. It's the most likely outcome, but then Everything is Awesome was very catchy.
Will win: Glory-Selma
Could win: Everything is Awesome-The Lego Movie, Lost Stars-Begin Again
BEST SOUND EDITING
In this category it pays to be a blockbuster. That said, the fact that The Battle of the Five Armies is the first Middle Earth film to miss a VFX nomination means that it is not well regarded and will not win this category. This narrows things down to a fight between Interstellar and American Sniper. Interstellar received some criticism for its sound design, although that was more directed to the mixing, and may not have affected the Academy much since the film still received both sound nominations. Nevertheless, Interstellar will likely lose this category to American SNiper, as war films have an even better record than blockbusters in this category, and the film was a bigger box office hit to boot.
Will win: American SNiper
Could win: Interstellar
BEST SOUND MIXING
Much more open than sound editing, as action and box office play a much smaller role. Interstellar still has a possibility to win here, but will more likely be affected by the criticism of the film's sound design. Best Picture winners do well here, so Birdman could take it, but isn't quite flashy enough to win this unless it starts sweeping. American Sniper could certainly win, as Sound Mixing and Sound Editing often go hand in hand. However, most often when they are split up it is because an action/war film wins editing and a musically based film wins mixing. Musicals and films about music have a huge headstart in the sound mixing category, and Whiplash used its sound in a strong and unique way, even for films of its kind. It's not locked, but it's certainly got a lead in probability.
Will win: Whiplash
Could win: American SNiper, Birdman, Interstellar
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
For the first time, one of Peter Jackson's Middle EArth films missed the nominations for this category. This doesn't affect the race much, as none of The Hobbit films have been able to win this, likely due to criticism of the series overuse of CGI in comparison to The Lord of the Rings. Captain America and X-Men are strong films, but superheroes have not done well in this category for a long time. That said, Guardians of the GAlaxy, despite being a Marvel film, is more space opera than superhero flick, and is also the most well regarded of the films nominated here. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has strong reviews on its side as well, and could make up for the first film's loss here three years ago. Interstellar's probably got the best shot, as the film's space effects are incredibly strong, as well as being liked in this category (evidenced by Gravity's win last year). Then again, Interstellar received far more criticism than Gravity did. Most likely it still wins, but the category is pretty wide open this year.
Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The lack of The Lego Movie here opens the race up in a big way. It's always shocking when the frontrunner of a category is not nominated, but then The Lego Movie was very nearly the locked in winner of the category. In its stead will likely be How to Train Your Dragon 2, but none of these films really hit the cultural zeitgeist the way The Lego Movie did, so it's really anyone's game, with Big Hero 6 as the most likely spoiler.
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6, The Tale of Princess Kaguya
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The question in this category is always what mood the voters will be in. Political films always have an advantage, as they feel important. As such Citizenfour, which is about Edward Snowden, seems to have the advantage. However, they also like films about animals, which could lead to Virunga taking the award away. Finding Vivian Maier, meanwhile, could win if they are in the mood to reward a film about the arts. I'd bet on Citizenfour taking it, but the other two are certainly solid contenders.
Will win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga, Finding Vivian Maier
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Another category that tends to be somewhat open, as the most popular film is often upstaged here. Ida seems the clear choice, due to its subject matter and the fact that it's the only one of the nominees to receive a nomination in another category (Best Cinematography). However, Leviathan is getting some notice as well, for the guts it took to make it. The fact that Ida recieved another nomination doesn't actually mean that much for this category, as that has somewhere around a 50% success rate in predicting the winner. I'll say that Leviathan takes this award in a surprise.
Will win: LEviathan
Could win: Ida
SHORTS
Honestly this is anybody's guess. I usually just pick whichever one sounds right, but anything goes in these categories.
Animated Short: THe Dam Keeper
Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Live Action Short: Parvaneh
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