2nd Spearie Television Awards Nominations

BEST SERIES

Better Call Saul

Game of Thrones

Silicon Valley

BEST EPISODE

Hardhome-Game of Thrones

Leslie and Ron-Parks and Recreation

Pimento-Better Call Saul

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST

Game of Thrones

Parks and Recreation

Silicon Valley

BEST ACTOR

Thomas Middleditch-Silicon Valley

Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul

Kevin Spacey-House of Cards

BEST ACTRESS

Kaitlyn Olsen-It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

Robin Wright-House of Cards

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jonathan Banks-Better Call Saul

Stephen Dillane-Game of Thrones

Nick Offerman-Parks and Recreation

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Suzanne Cryer-Silicon Valley

Lena Headey-Game of Thrones

Elizabeth Marvel-House of Cards

BEST GUEST ACTOR

Matt McCoy-Silicon Valley

Marc Pickering-Boardwalk Empire

Jonathan Pryce-Game of Thrones

BEST GUEST ACTRESS

Rachel Brosnahan-House of Cards

Carol Kane-Gotham

Diana Rigg-Game of Thrones

BEST DIRECTING

Adam Bernstein-Better Call Saul-Five O

Miguel Sapochnik-Game of Thrones-Hardhome

Matt Shakman-It's Always Sunny in PHiladelphia-Charlie Work

BEST WRITING

David Benioff and D.B. Weiss-Game of Thrones-Mother's Mercy

Thomas Schnauz-Better Call Saul-Pimento

Michael Schur-Parks and Recreation-Leslie and Ron

BEST MUSIC (original or compilation)

Boardwalk Empire

GAme of Thrones

MArvel's Daredevil

BEST EDITING

Better Call Saul-Marco

Game of Thrones-Hardhome

Marvel's Daredevil-Cut Man

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Game of Thrones-Hardhome

Gotham-Spirit of the Goat

It's Always Sunny in PHiladelphia-Charlie Work

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Boardwalk Empire

Game of Thrones

Gotham

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Better Call Saul

Boardwalk Empire

Game of thrones

BEST MAKEUP

GAme of Thrones

MArvel's Daredevil

It's Always Sunny in PHiladelphia

BEST SOUND

Better Call Saul

Game of Thrones

MArvel's DAredevil

BEST STUNT

GAme of Thrones-The Dance of Dragons (Setting dozens of stuntmen on fire in an arena)

Gotham-Balloonman (Raising two men many meters into the air on a giant balloon)

Marvel's Daredevil-Speak of the Devil (A fight between two men that involves bladed weapons and fire.)

BEST DEATH SCENE

Boardwalk Empire-Nelson VAn Alden

Game of Thrones-Jon Snow

Marvel's DAredevil-Anatoly Ranskahov

Top 10 Game of Thrones Episodes

Well, tonight Game of Thrones fifth season premieres, and I couldn't be more excited. For the first time this show seems like it's going to be its own thing, taking the major moments from the books but crafting them to make something of its own. While there's something nerve-wracking about straying from the books I am very excited, as showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss have proven their passion for and understanding of the source material enough that I trust them to trudge on their own path. There is yet to be a bad episode of this show, although not all episodes are created equal. So to ring in the new season, here are my top ten favorite episodes of the show so far. Keep in mind this is all just one opinion, and I would love to hear other opinions on what the best episodes of the show are. So, let's start with #10

(I am going to assume that anybody reading has seen the first four seasons of Game of Thrones, so consider this your SPOILER WARNING)

10

Mockingbird

 (season 4, episode 7)

One of the more underrated episodes of the show, in my opinion. This episode was light on action, short of The Mountain's introduction, but was heavy on emotional impact and strong dialogue. There are many great character-driven scenes for the characters in this episode, such as Arya/Hound, Brienne/Podrick and, of course, the wonderful fall of Lysa Arryn at the hands of Littlefinger that ended the episode. However, it is Tyrion that pushes this episode to the next level. A trio of scenes as he tries to find somebody to champion him in a trial of combat against The Mountain show the peak of GAme of Thrones excellent dialogue. His scene with Oberyn Martell, where the Dornish prince shares his story of anger against the Lannisters and The Mountain, and of his first meeting with Tyrion before deciding to be Tyrion's champion, is my personal favorite scene of the entire forth season, and is the reason this episode makes the top 10.

9

And Now His Watch is Ended

(Season 3, Episode 4)

Many people remember this episode for its ending, in which Daenerys takes control of the unsullied and kills the slave masters of Astapor. That scene, brilliantly directed by Alex Graves, is an awesome ending to a very strong episode. Varys actually has the most scenes in this episode, including a scene with Diana Rigg's Olenna Tyrell, a great example of the series ability to craft great scene using characters whose point of view you would not see in the books. It also includes the intense mutiny of the Night's watch which culminates in the death of Lord Commander Mormont. This episode was an early sign that the show's seasons would no longer have first halves made up of filler episodes like the second season.

8
The Watchers on the Wall
(Season 4, Episode 9)

The second battle episode that GAme of Thrones did, both directed by Neill Marshall, falls slightly short of its first, but is still an incredibly intense, and exciting episode of television that puts Game of Thrones ahead of other shows on television in terms of scope. This episode does improve on Blackwater in terms of its action choreography, featuring more intense and exciting melee combat. However, it features fewer interesting characters than Blackwater did. It's most memorable moment is likely the 360 degree shot, where the camera is in the center of the Castle Black courtyard and makes a full circle pan, stopping on all of the major characters as they fight for their lives in their own way. Continuing the series trend of excellent penultimate episodes.

7
A Man Without Honor
(Season 2, Episode 7)

Season 2 of Game of Thrones is, in my opinion, the weakest yet. This is mainly due to its large number of episodes that, while still filled with strong filmmaking and great dialogue, don't push the story forward in as interesting a method as the rest of the show. However, this episode, which primarily focuses on the captive Jaime Lannister, is an exception. This was the first episode which proved that Nicolaj Coster-Waldau is right up with Peter Dinklage as one of the best actors on the show. The rest of the episode featured strong scenes with Catelyn, Robb, Arya and Daenerys, but the scenes with Jaime are what put this ahead.

6
A Golden Crown
(Season 1, Episode 6)

Just the title of this episode is enough for most of you to remember the most significant moment of it. The final scene of this episode features the most creative death scene yet on the show, as Viserys Targaryen was given the Golden Crown he so desired, in the form of molten hot gold being poured over his head. Elsewhere in the show Eddard realized that Joffrey was the product of incest between JAime and Cersei Lannister, one of the first truly shocking twists in the story of Game of Thrones. Tyrion also had his best episode up to that point, given a chance to admit his crimes, a hilarious and raunchy scene, and his friendship with Bronn started as Bronn defended him, killing Ser VArdis in the first trial by combat of the show, a concept that has provided the series with some of its most exciting action scenes.

5
Kissed by Fire
(Season 3, Episode 5)

Although the ends of the seasons are often considered to be the strongest part of Game of Thrones, The best one-two punch of episodes in the show is actually episodes 4 and 5 of season 3. Kissed by Fire, though not containing a crowd pleasing moment like And Now His Watch is Ended's sack of Astapor, is a stronger episode overall, i feel, due to its strong performances and dialogue scenes. Robb's scene in which he must choose how to punish lord Rickard Karstark is frought with dramatic tension, and the subsequent execution, mirroring a Theon scene from the previous season, is one of the more visually and aurally dramatic scenes of the show. The greatest scene, however is the scene between Jaime and Brienne in the bathtub. In this scene the two adversaries become allies as Jaime reveals that his murder of the king, rather than a political act for his family, was an altruistic act that saved half a million innocent lives, forever changing the way we would see Jaime, turning a villain into a complex antihero.

4
The Lion and the Rose
(Season 4, Episode 2)

As it has now become apparent that George R.R. Martin's days writing for the show are possibly over, this may go down as the final episode he wrote for it, and what an episode to finish on. This is one of the more tension-wrought hours of the series, featuring the first true introduction to Reek (formerly Theon). However, it is Joffrey's wedding that will go down in the history of Game of Thrones scenes. A half hour full of different scenes that each build up the tension, as the viewer knows something major is coming, but are fearful of what. The tension never lets up until finally, the king begins choking. Within the next two minutes, the greatest villain of the series thus far is dead two episodes into the season, and the stage is set for the main storyline of the year. It's just unfortunate that season 4 was not able to top its second episode through the rest of the season.

3
Blackwater
(Season 2, Episode 9)

The first of only two episodes (so far) to take place in only a single location. This episode tells the story of the Battle of Blackwater, in which Stannis Baratheon's forces lay siege to King's Landing. Directed by filmmaker Neill Marshall, this episode featured a (nearly) movie scaled battle scene. The action hits a head in the explosion of wildfire that decimates Stannis' forces, but the tension continues as Tyrion commands the forces of King's Landing in a last ditch effort to prevent the walls from being breached. The episode also features some less violent, but no less tense scenes in which Sansa has to deal with an increasingly drunk Cersei, and the fear of what will happen to the women if the city falls. By focusing on how some of its best characters deal with a battle, this episode is elevated over being just an action episode.

2
Baelor
(Season 1, Episode 9)

The Episode that proved that Game of Thrones was not going to follow the previously set rules of television. The show had killed major characters before this episode, but the one person that everybody assumed was safe was Eddard Stark. How could he die? He's the main character of the show, his storyline has the most screentime, and he's the closest thing to a "good guy" that exists in this world. And then Sir Ilyn Payne swung, Eddard's head came off, and Game of Thrones evolved from popular niche show to pop culture phenomenon in one swing of the sword. An incredibly emotional episode, which features some important backstory for Tyrion and a fateful marriage arrangement for Robb, this is the hour that made Game of Thrones the show it was going to be.

1
The Rains of Castamere
(Season 3, Episode 9)

And this is the episode it was all leading up to. It should come as no surprise that this is the best episode of the show, as this is the scene that made David Benioff and D.B. Weiss want to create the series in the first place. This is an action packed episode that wisely chooses to focus on only a few storylines, and uses that to make the most out of their emotional impact. While the Daenerys storyline is less emotional than the others, its fantastic action makes up for it, and the near meeting of Jon and Bran is a strong and exciting scene, but let's be real. This episode is here for the ending. The Red Wedding is one of the most infamous scenes in the history of fiction. In the course of about six minutes, the most traditional heroes of the story are brutally slaughtered, there army routed, and the defining conflict of the show finished with a decisive loss for the heroes. The Starks, the main group that audiences rooted for, were finished, in a bloody and violent climax, and the Lannisters, the previous villains, became the main characters of the series from this point out. This scene was horrifying, tense, and beautiful. Directed with fantastic vision by David Nutter, the tension builds up to the point where everything goes wrong, and breaks the audiences hearts and expectations in one fell swoop, destroying the, admittedly faint by this point, hope that the ending of this series could be happy.

Reviews of the Best Picture Nominees

AMERICAN SNIPER

Well on its way to becoming the highest grossing film of 2014, American Sniper is probably the most talked about of the Best Picture nominees and definitely the most seen by far. Does that say anything about its quality? Not really. The discussion, and many peoples view, of the film is based more on the politics presented than the film's true quality. In truth, the film is more of a character study than a political message film, keeping its focus on Chris Kyle rather than the war. This is a major strength of the film, as it gives Bradley Cooper a lot of material to work with in crafting a fantastic performance. However, much of the film feels like a missed opportunity. The story goes back and forth between Kyle's tours in the Middle East and his time back home, dealing with PTSD. The storyline of his home life could have made this film a truly great examination of how the war affects the soldiers when they get back, and how our country can do better to help these men. Instead, the filmmakers seem uncomfortable with this storyline, as though they don't know what to do with it beyond just showing Chris Kyle having PTSD. Instead, they put a heavier focus on the action aspect of the film, which has some truly remarkable sequences but little that we haven't seen before. This is a very strong war film with a great lead performance, but it could have been so much more than it is. B+

BIRDMAN

Our likely winner this year, Birdman is a film about the mental toll that the arts can take on those who are involved in them. The film is chock full of great actors giving some of their strongest performances yet, with Emma Stone and Michael Keaton easily giving career-best performances. The acting and the dialogue are fun and light and give the film a real sense of momentum. As well, the film's long tracking shots (edited together to look like one continuous shot) are a fun and beautiful way of telling the story, even if they are more fun than essential. Every scene in the film is an entertaining, and funny examination of these characters who are involved in a very strange way of life. Perhaps the film works somewhat better as a group of scenes than as a whole (a few moments suggest that the filmmaker's weren't 100% clear on their final message) but its one of the most interesting and entertaining movies of the year nonetheless. A-

BOYHOOD

Any of you who have seen my Spearie Awards know that this was, in my opinion, the best film that came out in the past year. There are many reasons for this, most of which I have been over. The fact that this movie was made over twelve years, as the actors grew up, could have been nothing more than a gimmick, but because Richard Linklater put so much effort into finding the most realistic way to have his characters grow and change through the times it instead becomes an integral way to tell a one-of-a-kind story. This is a slice of life film, so there is no overarching story beyond showing the life of a boy as he grows up. There are no shocking moments, no straining of suspension of disbelief, just many moments in a young man's life, seeing who he was and who he becomes in as realistic a way as has been portrayed outside of documentaries. Definitely a once in a lifetime film. A

THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
I have already reviewed this film here so I will not say any more about it here beyond the fact that it is an incredibly beautiful and fun film that perhaps spreads its cast a little too thin in some ways and features some bizarre tonal shifts. B

THE IMITATION GAME  

There isn't all that much in The Imitation Game that is totally new. However, there is plenty in the film that hasn't been done better. Telling the story of Alan Turing, the man who cracked the Enigma code, making a gigantic contribution to the allies winning WWII and subsequently getting glossed over by history for it, The Imitation Game does many things in a unique way. The film manages to turn the creation of a computer into a race against time as exciting as any thriller this year. As well, Benedict Cumberbatch's wonderful performance as Turing manages to take a very cold and logical man and make it easy for viewers to create an emotional attachment to the character. There's not much else to say beyond the fact that this film is filmmaking firing on all cylindars, and left me with perhaps the strongest emotional impact of any film this year. A

SELMA

Speaking of glossed over. Selma's story with the Academy is a strange one. Despite fantastic reception, Selma received virtually zero nominations from any of the major awards this year. Most signs point to the film's late completion as the reason for this, as the film was not finished in time to mount a true awards campaign. This is really a shame, as Selma, like The Imitation GAme, is simply filmmaking at its finest. Selma effortlessly finds a way to take issues that are fifty years old and make them feel incredibly relevant today. It is a brutally honest and unforgiving film, but at the same time, one that is hopeful and inspiring. In another world, Selma was completed on time and was able to achieve the recognition it deserves, but instead it is a strange story, and a film that will likely go down in history more than some of its more-nominated brethren. A

THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING

The Theory of Everything features some amazing performances from Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones as Stephen Hawking and his wife Jane Wilde. Beyond the two leads, however, this film is fairly standard biopic fare. While Redmayne is very great as Hawking, skillfully portraying the disease he developed and how he dealt with its effects, the real star of the film is Felicity Jones. While she doesn't have the disease angle to play, she expertly shows the conflict at the heart of the woman, someone who loves her husband but has tremendous difficulty making it through the day having to take care of him. Her vulnerability is incredibly tangible and she manages to steal the movie right out from under Redmayne. Hopefully this movie will make her a star. Although beyond the leads there isn't too much that is incredibly interesting, and the aging work on the makeup is simply bad, although they do a great job creating the disease. B+

WHIPLASH

Unfairly this is probably the least seen of the nominees. This is truly a shame, as it is possibly the most unique of the eight, save for Boyhood. Written and directed by 28 year old Damien Chazelle, Whiplash tells the story of a young man with a lot of potential and the no-nonsense mentor who helped him realize that potential. However, this film twists that cliche on its head by taking the naive but promising upstart and turning him into a talented but self righteous narcissist, and taking the gruff-but-vulnerable, tough love based teacher and turning him into a sociopath who will stop at nothing to get what he needs from his students. The result is a film that is more thriller than mentor story, and one of the most intense and unpredictable experiences of the year, and one that creates perhaps the most memorable villain of the year. A

      

2014 Oscar Winners Predictions

BEST PICTURE
This year there were eight films nominated for Best Picture, and all of them were good, even very good. While there are a few whose win would frustrate me, I cannot say any of the films had strong weaknesses, and could understand why all of them were somebody's favorite film this year. That said, many of the films can be easily counted out from the chance of winning the award. Though not as bulletproof since Argo won two years ago, the lack of a Best Director nomination ends the chances of Whiplash and The Theory of Everything, and falls just short of ending the chances of American Sniper and Selma. Those tow have enough discussion factor so they can't be completely counted out, but each have enough going against them that a win would be incredibly shocking. The Imitation Game is a great and baity film, but for some reason seems to be more respected than loved. That leaves the three films that have dominated all of the awards thus far: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood. Though Boyhood doesn't have as many nominations as the other two (6 versus 9 each) It has a ton of passion and was by far the critical favorite. That said, when it comes to industry awards the film's fallen short, only taking an award from the American Cinema Editors. Birdman, meanwhile, has nearly swept. This suggests that Birdman will be the winner, as Boyhood seems to be more of a critics film, while Birdman has grasped the industry itself. As such, I believe Birdman will take this award. The Grand Budapest is a potential spoiler, but perhaps too comedic and fanciful to win over the other two films, though could wind up with the award if the other two films split votes.

Will win: Birdman
Could win: Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST DIRECTOR
For the first time since the amount of Best Picture nominees was increased to 10, a film managed to be nominated for Best Director without a nomination for Best Picture. As impressive as that is, it also means the director has virtually no chance of winning, so don't bother marking Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher) on your ballots. Also out is Morten Tyldum, who simply doesn't have enough support to expect anything more to come of his work on The Imitation GAme. This leaves the same trio of films as Picture vying for the award. Once again, Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) is probably in third due to the fact that his style, while finally being recognized, may turn off some people. This narrows the field down to Richard Linklater (Boyhood) and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman). This race is much closer than Best Picture. While Innaritu won the Director's Guild Award, the most reliable predictor, I believe Linklater will wind up winning this award. Even people who weren't as in love with Boyhood respect the director's commitment. The fact that Linklater spent twelve years making the film is a cool story, and the fact that the film came out as good as it did leads me to believe that Linklater will pull this victory off, even without his film winning Best Picture

Will win: Richard Linklater-Boyhood
Could win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Birdman, Wes Anderson-The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ACTOR
This is easily the most open of the acting categories this year. Both Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) have a great shot at winning this year. Redmayne seems the more likely choice, due to his Screen Actors guild, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, although Keaton has won his fair share of awards as well. Keaton, meanwhile, is starring in the likely Best Picture winner, giving him a definite boost over Redmayne, whose film is one of the least likely to win the prize. That said, Redmayne is portraying Stephen Hawking a beloved public figure, and one with a debilitating disease, both traits that have helped many actors win awards in the past. I'd say Redmayne will win it at this point, but a victory by Keaton certainly wouldn't be surprising. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) has been gaining traction lately due to his film's box office success and the story behind the film, but not enough to be a real threat to the two leaders in the race.

Will win: Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
Could Win: Michael Keaton-Birdman


BEST ACTRESS
Not much of a competition this year. Many great actresses in great roles, but Julianne Moore (Still Alice) will finally win an Oscar this year for her portrayal of a woman who is diagnosed with Alzheimers.

Will win: Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Could Win: None-Moore's got it

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another locked up category. J.K. Simmons gives an incredibly intense and powerful performance in Whiplash, and will be rewarded with an Oscar tonight.

Will win: J.K. Simmons-Whiplash
Could win: Another lock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
A little less locked up than Lead Actress or Supporting Actor, this category nonetheless has a heavy favorite. Patricia Arquette's heartfelt performance in Boyhood is the film's surest bet at a victory. Emma Stone could conceivably win if they go all in for Birdman (A situation which still wouldn't be enough for Edward Norton to top J.K. Simmons) but in all likelihood Arquette will be the one walking away victorious.

Will win: Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone-Birdman

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This category narrows down to the same three contenders as Best Picture and director, but at slightly different levels. Though Boyhood being one of the strongest contenders for Best Picture would seem to help it here, it's loss at the Writer's Guild awards was a big hit. As well, the freeform style of the film may lead to it being seen as more of a directing based film than a screenplay based one. It doesn't get more writing based, however, than The Grand Budapest Hotel. This film has a ton of support and has won many awards for its writing, with screenplay being one of the most friendly categories towards comedies in the entire ceremony. However, unless there is some notable reason for it to lose best screenplay, the Best Picture winner will usually take the category it is in. For that reason, I believe Birdman will wind up winning this award, likely only a few votes ahead of Budapest.

Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Boyhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
As the frontrunners for Best Picture are all in the Original Screenplay category, this category is left somewhat more open. Inherent Vice being the only nominee not also nominated for Best Picture means that its the only film that can be counted out for the win outright. American Sniper is likely in a weak position as well, as it has many detractors out there who will disagree with the politics they feel are presented in the film. Whiplash landed here somewhat as a result of strange category rules (it is "Adapted" from a short film whose sole purpose was to get this feature made) and could potentially take the win, but will likely fall to one of its two talkier brethren. The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are both British, baity true stories with a lot of character development and interesting ideas brought in. The Theory of Everything managed to win the British equivalent of this category over Imitation, but in the end I think this will be the consolation prize for The Imitation Game, a film that could have been a major contender for Best Picture, but one which will likely go home with only one win to its name.

Will win: The Imitation Game
Could win: The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman was filmed to look like it was one long shot. While it's no secret that the film was done in more than one shot, with editing used to blend the takes together, it was still full of long tracking shots that moved from character to character, while still finding a way to be interesting from a lighting and framing standpoint. Lubezki's winning his second award in as many years.

Will win: Birdman
Could win: Nothing, this is the most locked up tech award of the night.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
In this category the rule is the flashier, the better. This counts out Inherent Vice and Mr. Turner, both of which had realistic costumes, though were likely too down to Earth to stand out. Maleficent isn't held back by its reviews, this category is not often aided by being a Best Picture nominee, but will likely miss out due to its early release date and competition with Into the Woods. Woods is the more likely fantasy nominee, but even it will likely fall short to The Grand Budapest Hotel. Budapest is a marvel of visual design, and the costumes were a huge part of that which will not likely go unnoticed.

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Into the Woods, Maleficent

BEST FILM EDITING
As Birdman's lack of a nomination in this category showed, having visible editing is often the clearest way to win this award. As such, American Sniper or Whiplash would seem to be the favorites. Whiplash especially has very showy editing, with a couple of key sequences standing out in a major way. However, the pure amount of support for The Grand Budapest Hotel could carry it to a win here. The most likely outcome, however, is that Boyhood wins. Boyhood took twelve years of footage and edited them down into a 2 hour and 45 minute film which managed to keep an interesting pace and perspective of time. Voters will not likely overlook that, but if they do look out for Whiplash to pick up its slack.

Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Sniper

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
This is often the most unpredictable category each year. Any of the three films nominated could wind up with the win. Foxcatcher is the least likely victor, as there is only one character with notable makeup, although the film does clearly have some support. In the past the film with the most showy creature makeup would be the easy winner, however in recent years, with fantasy and sci fi turning more and more to CGI, the award has gone to period pieces with a lot of hairstyling more often, and with a visually splendid film like The Grand Budapest Hotel nominated, it would be foolish to bet against it. Sometimes, however, surprises happen and one has to be foolish to predict them to happen. For that reason I believe that Guardians of the Galaxy, with its insistence on using makeup to create fantastical creatures in every possible case, will wind up winning this award for its intricate and large scale prosthetic work.

Will win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Foxcatcher

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel wins it. One has only to see pictures of the films sets to understand that this is a foregone conclusion.

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Nothing, really. This one's in the bag.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat is nominated twice here, for his two outstanding scores for The Imitation Game and THe Grand Budapest Hotel. Both scores stand a very strong chance at winning here, with Grand Budapest being slightly more likely due to the film's overall support. However, its very likely that the two films will cancel each other out, and the win will instead go to Johann Johannson's score for The Theory of Everything. Nonetheless, it's a close three way race.

Will win: The THeory of Everything
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The THeory of Everything

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Probably the only category that can beat Makeup and Hairstyling for randomness, this category often throws a curveball when it comes to the winner. As such it's hard to truly count anything out, though I'm not Gonna Miss You (Glenn Campbell: I'm Not There) and Grateful (Beyond the Lights) certainly seem like longshots. Lost Stars (Begin Again) is the kind of song that may potentially hit the right notes with voters, and Everything is Awesome is easily the biggest hit of the five, and a great opportunity to make up for snubbing The Lego Movie for best Animated Feature. However, when this category has a frontrunner that can be a very difficult steamroller to stop. As such Glory, which manages to get across an important message without sacrificing aesthetic strength, will be hard to beat. As well, this is the Academy's opportunity to make up for dropping the ball in regards to the film Selma. It's the most likely outcome, but then Everything is Awesome was very catchy.

Will win: Glory-Selma
Could win: Everything is Awesome-The Lego Movie, Lost Stars-Begin Again

BEST SOUND EDITING
In this category it pays to be a blockbuster. That said, the fact that The Battle of the Five Armies is the first Middle Earth film to miss a VFX nomination means that it is not well regarded and will not win this category. This narrows things down to a fight between Interstellar and American Sniper. Interstellar received some criticism for its sound design, although that was more directed to the mixing, and may not have affected the Academy much since the film still received both sound nominations. Nevertheless, Interstellar will likely lose this category to American SNiper, as war films have an even better record than blockbusters in this category, and the film was a bigger box office hit to boot.

Will win: American SNiper
Could win: Interstellar

BEST SOUND MIXING
Much more open than sound editing, as action and box office play a much smaller role. Interstellar still has a possibility to win here, but will more likely be affected by the criticism of the film's sound design. Best Picture winners do well here, so Birdman could take it, but isn't quite flashy enough to win this unless it starts sweeping. American Sniper could certainly win, as Sound Mixing and Sound Editing often go hand in hand. However, most often when they are split up it is because an action/war film wins editing and a musically based film wins mixing. Musicals and films about music have a huge headstart in the sound mixing category, and Whiplash used its sound in a strong and unique way, even for films of its kind. It's not locked, but it's certainly got a lead in probability.

Will win: Whiplash
Could win: American SNiper, Birdman, Interstellar

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
For the first time, one of Peter Jackson's Middle EArth films missed the nominations for this category. This doesn't affect the race much, as none of The Hobbit films have been able to win this, likely due to criticism of the series overuse of CGI in comparison to The Lord of the Rings. Captain America and X-Men are strong films, but superheroes have not done well in this category for a long time. That said, Guardians of the GAlaxy, despite being a Marvel film, is more space opera than superhero flick, and is also the most well regarded of the films nominated here. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has strong reviews on its side as well, and could make up for the first film's loss here three years ago. Interstellar's probably got the best shot, as the film's space effects are incredibly strong, as well as being liked in this category (evidenced by Gravity's win last year). Then again, Interstellar received far more criticism than Gravity did. Most likely it still wins, but the category is pretty wide open this year.

Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The lack of The Lego Movie here opens the race up in a big way. It's always shocking when the frontrunner of a category is not nominated, but then The Lego Movie was very nearly the locked in winner of the category. In its stead will likely be How to Train Your Dragon 2, but none of these films really hit the cultural zeitgeist the way The Lego Movie did, so it's really anyone's game, with Big Hero 6 as the most likely spoiler.

Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6, The Tale of Princess Kaguya

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The question in this category is always what mood the voters will be in. Political films always have an advantage, as they feel important. As such Citizenfour, which is about Edward Snowden, seems to have the advantage. However, they also like films about animals, which could lead to Virunga taking the award away. Finding Vivian Maier, meanwhile, could win if they are in the mood to reward a film about the arts. I'd bet on Citizenfour taking it, but the other two are certainly solid contenders.

Will win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga, Finding Vivian Maier

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Another category that tends to be somewhat open, as the most popular film is often upstaged here. Ida seems the clear choice, due to its subject matter and the fact that it's the only one of the nominees to receive a nomination in another category (Best Cinematography). However, Leviathan is getting some notice as well, for the guts it took to make it. The fact that Ida recieved another nomination doesn't actually mean that much for this category, as that has somewhere around a 50% success rate in predicting the winner. I'll say that Leviathan takes this award in a surprise.

Will win: LEviathan
Could win: Ida

SHORTS
Honestly this is anybody's guess. I usually just pick whichever one sounds right, but anything goes in these categories.

Animated Short: THe Dam Keeper
Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Live Action Short: Parvaneh

2014 Oscar Nominations Predictions

So with my busy work schedule I didn't have time to make comments for each category. Instead, I have listed the films that I believe have a realistic shot at getting an Oscar Nomination Thursday morning in each category.

I will, however, give some quick commentary here. Boyhood seems like the one to beat at the moment, but that could easily change. Selma is a wild card. It didn't get screeners to the guilds, meaning it missed all of the precursors, but it did get screeners to the Academy. This means the lack of guild nominations doesn't hurt it, but it does mean that we do not have a barometer of how much the Academy liked it. After some early success, The Theory of Everything's buzz has faded, and The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler, and Whiplash have found their buzz growing steadily. Unbroken is just about done for, save some tech categories. Foxcatcher and Gone Girl have support, but will likely fall prey to strong competition.

Films are listed in order of probability of a nomination.

BEST PICTURE

Boyhood

The Imitation GAme

Birdman

Selma

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Theory of Everything

American Sniper

Whiplash

Nightcrawler

Gone Girl

Foxcatcher

Unbroken

Into the Woods

BEST DIRECTOR

Richard Linklater-Boyhood

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Birdman

Morten Tyldum-The Imitation Game

Ava DuVernay-Selma

WEs Anderson-The Grand Budapest Hotel

Clint Eastwood-American Sniper

Dan Gilroy-Nightcrawler

David Fincher-Gone Girl

Damien Chazelle-Whiplash

James Marsh-The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTOR

Michael KEaton-Birdman

Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything

Benedict Cumberbatch-The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler

David Oyelowo-Selma

Bradley Cooper-American Sniper

Steve Carell-Foxcatcher

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore-Still Alice

Reese Witherspoon-Wild

Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl

Jennifer Aniston-Cake

Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything

Amy Adams-Big Eyes

Marion Cotillard-Two Days, One Night

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

J.K. Simmons-Whiplash

Edward Norton-Birdman

Ethan Hawke-Boyhood

Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher

Robert Duvall-The Judge

Josh Brolin-Inherent Vice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette-Boyhood

Emma Stone-Birdman

Keira Knightley-The Imitation Game

Meryl Streep-Into the Woods

Jessica Chastain-A Most Violent Year

Rene Russo-Nightcrawler

Laura Dern-Wild

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Boyhood

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Mr. Turner

Selma

Foxcatcher

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

THe Imitation Game

Gone Girl

The Theory of Everything

American Sniper

Whiplash

Inherent Vice

Wild

Unbroken

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Lego Movie

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Big Hero 6

THe Boxtrolls

Song of the SEa

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida (Poland)

Leviathan (Russia)

Timbuktu (Mauritania)

Wild Tales (Argentina)

Force Majeure (Sweden)

Tangerines (Estonia)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Citizenfour

Life Itself

The Overnighters

Last Days in Vietnam

Virunga

Keep on Keepin on

Finding Vivian Maier

The Case Against 8

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman

Mr. Turner

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Unbroken

Interstellar

The Theory of Everything

Ida

A Most Violent Year

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Into the Woods

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Mr. Turner

Selma

Maleficent

The Theory of Everything

BEST EDITING

Boyhood

Birdman

Whiplash

The Imitation Game

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

Nightcrawler

American Sniper

Wild

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Guardians of the Galaxy

The Theory of Everything

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Foxcatcher

Noah

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Into the Woods

The Imitation Game

Mr. Turner

Interstellar

Birdman

Big Eyes

Maleficent

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Theory of Everything

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Homesman

Interstellar

Gone Girl

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Glory”-Selma

“Lost Stars”-Begin Again

“Not Gonna Miss You”-Glenn Campbell: I’ll be Me

“Everything is Awesome”-The Lego Movie

“Mercy is”-Noah

“Ryan’s Song”-Boyhood

“America for Me”-A Most Violent Year

“Big Eyes”-Big Eyes

BEST SOUND EDITING

American Sniper
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Guardians of the Galaxy

Godzilla

Fury

Interstellar

Unbroken

Birdman

Gone Girl

BEST SOUND MIXING

Into the Woods

American Sniper

Unbroken

Birdman

Guardians of the Galaxy

Transformers: Age of Extinction

Fury

The Imitation GAme

Get on Up

Interstellar

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Interstellar

Guardians of the Galaxy

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Godzilla

X-Men: Days of Future Past