2019 Oscar Predictions

Here are my predictions for who might win at the Oscars tomorrow night. It's very tough this year, as this has been quite an odd awards season. As such, keep in mind that nothing should be considered a true "lock" this year. That said, some films are more likely to win than others. For Best Picture I will look at all 8 films individually, while the rest of the categories Ill go into a brief overview.

As a heads up, I will be mentioning a "preferential ballot" in the Best Picture race. While most categories are simple popularity contests, the big one has voters rank all of the nominees in order of preference. The film with the least #1 votes is eliminated, and whoever voted for that film has their 2nd place votes counted instead, and so on. Due to this, Best Picture relies a little more on consensus than passion, and 2nd and 3rd place votes do matter. (This system is likely the reason Moonlight beat La La Land 2 years ago.) With that out of the way...

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther has made quite the splash. Highest grossing film of the year in the USA, 3rd highest of all time, and achieving easily the largest impact of any of the nominees. That said, the film wasn't nominated for directing, writing, acting or editing, and much of the academy will still scoff at the idea of a superhero film winning Best Picture. Still, the ceiling has been broken for a nomination, and perhaps could pave the way for a victor in the future. This is a perfect example of the phrase "the nomination is the reward."

BlacKKKlansman doesn't seem like a huge contender based on the precursors. It hasn't won awards from any major body, unlike many of its competitors. However, it could still be one to watch out for. BlacKKKlansman has been nominated by every important voting body, and has achieved all of the nominations that traditionally are needed to support a Best Picture victory (directing, editing, writing and acting.) This suggests that, while the film's supporters may not be as vocal as some of the others, they are very numerous. BlacKKKlansman is the nominee that will benefit the most from the preferential voting system as, though perhaps trailing some fellow nominees in #1 votes, it should get stronger and stronger as the 2nd and 3rd place votes start coming into play. It's far from the frontrunner, but definitely one to watch out for.

Bohemian Rhapsody is the easiest film to count out of the race. Though clearly the film has its supporters, it also has the most "haters" of any of the nominees, added onto a controversial director and notoriously troubled production. This is the film that will be in last place on the most ballots, and is exactly the kind of film that the preferential voting will hurt.

The Favourite is a little weaker here than it looks on paper. It is tied for the most nominations this year, possesses nominations in all of the most important categories, and won several British Academy Awards. That said, it lost Best Picture at said British awards, despite being exactly their kind of film. As well, the film's unique style, modern sensibilities and general "oddness" will hurt its chances with more closed-minded voters. Due to the sheer strength of its nominations, and simply the quality of the filmmaking, it can't be completely counted out. That said it's a major longshot.

Green Book is in a very good position. It won the Producer's guild award (which uses the same preferential voting system) and has inspired a lot of passion through awards season. It actually is likely the film that will have the most #1 votes. That said, the film has gone through its fair share of controversies, including allegations of harassment from the director and anti-muslim tweets from the writer. As well, many consider the film's views on racial issues to be too old-fashioned and over-simplified to deserve the top spot. ALSO, the film has dealt with allegations of historical inaccuracy from the family of Mahershala Ali's character. Then it missed out on receiving a very-important Best Director nomination. Ultimately, this films awards track record is most similar to last years Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which seemed like the frontrunner until hit with controversies and missing a Best Director nomination. All of this comes together to weigh the film down with heavy baggage. This won't stop many voters from rating it highly, but will most likely just keep it from winning the top prize. 

Roma has instead taken the frontrunner position in the last couple of months. It is a visually fascinating and emotional film, that is tied for most nominations and even managed to achieve a few nominations that nobody expected (which suggests widespread support for the film). It also won the Director's Guild awards and the British Academy Award for Best Picture, both reliable predictors.  However, a foreign language film has never won Best Picture before. Many members of the academy may also reject the film due to it being a Netflix film, which lacked a traditional theatrical release. It also missed an editing nomination, although as Birdman showed 4 years ago, films built primarily on long takes don't necessarily require that one. Overall it's the easy frontrunner, and has a fairly significant lead, but it's far from being a lock.

A Star is Born looked so good on paper. A classic Hollywood love story that became a megahit with audiences, containing a song that topped the charts. However, though clearly an audience hit, the film seems to be lacking the same level of passion within the film industry. Though no slouch with 8 nominations, the film hasn't won any major awards outside of Best Song. Though it was the frontrunner as recently as January, now it seems like an also-ran, and a warning that the very term "frontrunner" doesn't mean as much as we may think.

Vice was perhaps the biggest surprise on the morning of the nominations. Though many predicted it to be nominated for Best Picture, few expected it to be tied for 2nd most, with several of its 8 mentions being quite surprising. That said, it shares the same issue as Bohemian Rhapsody, with seemingly just as many people hating the film as loving it. Though clearly there is a lot of love for the film, it's going to lack the 2nd and 3rd place votes that will be very important in a year like this. 

Nominees ranked in order of likelihood

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. BlacKKKlansman

4. The Favourite

5. A Star is Born

6. Black Panther

7. Vice

8. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron is the clear frontrunner in this category. His film is very personal, with showy direction and is the frontrunner for Best Picture to boot. All of that PLUS he has won seemingly every best director award on the planet for this film. Spike Lee will get some votes for his Oscar-less career, but Cuaron seems far to much ahead to have much of a shot at losing.

BEST ACTOR

This category is a little more up in the air than it seems. Rami Malek has been very heavily lauded for his performance, in which he plays a flamboyant and likable true-life personality. That said, Oscar likes a transformation, so Christian Bale's role as Dick Cheney in Vice can't be counted out. Viggo Mortensen is also waiting on the sidelines, hoping for a vote split between those two frontrunners. Still, even those who hate the film Bohemian Rhapsody have nothing but kind words to say about Rami Malek's performance as Freddy Mercury, so he's the smartest bet. 

BEST ACTRESS

Not much to say about this one. Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman will get their votes, but there's just a general feeling that it's time to finally give Glenn Close an Oscar. Though The Wife has no other nominations, this is exactly the kind of situation that veteran actors win for. Seeing her lose would be tremendously shocking.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category is also pretty easy to call. Though all five performers are great, Mahershala Ali seems to be the generally agreed upon winner here, taking almost every precursor award for his role in Green Book. It's admittedly unfair, as he has a much larger and more developed role than any of his competitors (he's really a lead in the film) but he's on the ballot, and he'll get the votes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This category is simultaneously one of the least predictable, and one of the best categories this year. All five nominees could win here, and all would deserve to win in almost any other year. Regina King was the frontrunner, but then she missed out on nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy Awards, while her film If Beale Street Could Talk wasn't nominated for Best Picture. (All of the other nominees' films were nominated for the big prize) Still, the fact that nobody else has managed to take the frontrunner status means she'll likely still manage to win this category. Still, any of the other nominees could conceivably win here, with Rachel Weisz as the most likely competitor (she'd be the frontrunner if it weren't for her costar Emma Stone likely taking some votes away from her). It's a very tight race, though, so it's hard to call any guess wrong.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I've been going back and forth between Green Book and The Favourite in this race. Green Book is a potential Best Picture winner, and has received much acclaim for its screenplay. That said, like Three Billboards before it, the screenplay is also where much of the controversy is aimed. Though that's not a guarantee against it, the fact that it lost the Writer's Guild award to a film that wasn't even nominated by the Oscars suggests that the controversies may be having an effect. As such, I'm guessing The Favourite will take it's place. This is the category most prone to making "cool" choices and rewarding originality, which The Favourite has in spades. Watch out for Roma, though, which could pick this award up if voter's go for it even more than expected.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No film has won this category without being nominated for Best Picture since 1998, and there is no reason to suspect that this year will be any different. That narrows this race down to A Star is Born and BlacKKKlansman.  Of those two, BlacKKKlansman has a heavy lead here. It's screenplay, which weaves a confrontational attitude into a well-crafted crime drama tale, is it's strongest asset. This is also a great opportunity to recognize Spike Lee's career, especially for voters who aren't voting for him in the directing category. Though If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? will have their supporters, the smart money would be on Spike Lee and his cowriters. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Sorry to the rest of the nominees, but this category comes down to either Black Panther or If Beale Street Could Talk. Black Panther seems to have the advantage due to its Best Picture nomination, and the heavy cultural attributes of its score (never a bad thing to have.) That being said, this category often errs towards the classical and emotional, which suggests that If Beale Street Could Talk will be the winner here on Oscar night. It's a beautiful, flowing score that is weaved into the film, that also plays very well when removed from the context of the film. It's hard to count Black Panther out, but since action scores don't tend to do well here, Nicholas Britell should be the one to find himself on the stage. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

If "Shallow" doesn't win this category it will be one of the biggest surprises in Oscar history. Little else needs to be said, this is a no-brainer, and will keep former frontrunner A Star is Born from going home empty handed. 

BEST FILM EDITING

 

This is the hardest category to guess outside of Best Supporting Actress. The only film you can count out is Green Book, which isn't nearly showy enough to win this category. The more editing the film has, the better its chances of winning here, which should theoretically narrow it down to Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice. These films are massively edited, done in a very showy style that is noticeable to even the least informed. However, this category often ties to Best Picture, where The Favourite and BlacKKKlansman are much bigger threats. I'd watch out for BlacKKKlansman, as it's in a very "editing friendly" genre, but my guess here is that the support which brought Vice to 8 nominations will show itself here. Don't quote me on that, though, as it's going to be a photo finish between all four films. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

There is a slight chance that the stark contrast images of Cold War will win here, especially if voters don't like a director serving as his own cinematographer. That said, Roma is the clear pick here, as it's gorgeous imagery has gone a long way towards the films overall success.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Both Production Design and Costume Design are basically a drag race between Black Panther and The Favourite. My suspicion is that they're so close that they'll wind up splitting the categories. Of the two, Production design is a little more geared towards world building, and thus more open to fantasy films. As such, I believe Black Panther will ever so slightly eke out a victory here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

That being said, Costume Design tends to err towards the historical. This category also often goes to female-driven films, with lavish dresses being the most surefire way to achieve a victory here. The much buzzed about, creative and cultural clothing of Black Panther will put up a good fight, but The Favourite is so exactly what the Oscars usually look for that it's hard to guess against it. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

This category is often anybody's guess, as it's provides some odd winners in the past. That said, not only does Vice completely transform its famous actors into real world figures, always a safe bet, but it's competitors likely haven't been seen by many voters. It's as safe a bet as you get in this category. 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Though it can be confusing to differentiate the two sound categories, the simplest description is that this category refers to the general recording and melding of the sounds, as well as properly setting of the volume levels. This category tends to favor musically-based films, pointing to Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born. Of the two, Bohemian Rhapsody has a lot more going on. Its musical sequences are bigger and far more stylized, containing more elements. There is the possibility that it may split votes with A Star is Born, leading to First Man winning here, but I'm guessing it has enough of a lead over Star to take this one without issue.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Sound Editing refers to the creation of the individual sound effects. War, action and sci-fi tend to do well here for this reason. As the biggest budget film here Black Panther has a shot, but it's sound work likely isn't notable enough to pull off a victory. Instead the safest bet is on First Man. The film's scenes of space travel use sound to help create a palpable feeling of tension, which should launch it to a victory here. It wouldn't be wise to completely count out Bohemian Rhapsody, though, as it will likely get a lot of votes here, especially from those who just put the same film down for both categories. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Though Avengers: Infinity war has the showiest effects here, which would suggest its the frontrunner, it's not all that safe a bet. Only two superhero films have ever won this category (Superman and Spider-Man 2) and it's perhaps the one technical awards where being the showiest doesn't really improve a film's chances. Voters often vote for the film here more than the effects, and since First Man is the only one of the films in the category to have any other nominations, it's got the best chance.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Since its release, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has been lauded with so much love and adoration, that it instantly became the favorite to win this category. Not only is it a great story, filled with fun characters and powerful emotions, but it also has an incredibly unique visual style that is dynamic, colorful and fun. You can never truly count Pixar out, so don't write off Incredibles 2 just yet, but Into the Spider-Verse is the clear choice.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Though this seems like a done-deal (Only one of the films is nominated for Best Picture, so clearly it's the Best Foreign Language Film) there's actually the possibility of an upset. Cold War has a lot of support, evidenced by it's Best Director nomination, and a surprise of nearly this magnitude occurred just 12 years ago when underdog The Lives of Others beat 6-time nominee and 3-time winner Pan's Labyrinth. Still, it's hard to imagine somebody voting for Roma as Best Picture, but not giving it a vote here, and it's 10 nominations suggest that it has little to worry about.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Won't You Be My Neighbor was a total lock here until the very moment it wasn't nominated. That snub led to a two-way race between Free Solo and RBG. Free Solo is the more unique of the two, with awe-inspiring cinematography and a sense of tension often missing from the genre. On the other hand, Vice's 8 nominations show that the Academy is feeling political this year, and few political figures are as well loved as Ruth Bader Ginsberg. RBG is the wise bet, for subject more than content.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

This is one of the strongest categories this year, but it is also by far the most depressing. Four of the Five films depict young boys in extreme danger. Though all of these films are well acted, directed and shot, it gets exhausting when they are viewed back to back. As such the film to stick out will likely be the one pleasant film, Marguerite. Featuring two wonderful performances from Beatrice Picard and Sandrine Besson, set against a touching story of human connection, it's the perfect counterpoint to the trauma occurring in the rest of the films. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Though Pixar is a dominant force in Best Animated Feature, their short films have only won four times in the last 30 years (and they usually have at least one film in contention). That said, Bao is still the most likely winner here due to having something for everyone. The rest of the nominees in this category are either funny or heartwarming, while Bao is the only film that is both. Because of this, it's an option for all voters, whether they are looking to laugh or cry. Still, all five films have a decent shot at this category, so it won't be too surprising to hear another name.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Another category where any of the five films could easily win. The best way to predict this category is to look at which film seems the most important. This year, that distinction goes to Lifeboat, which depicts the sea rescue of hundreds of refugees from Libya in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. Still, Period, End of Sentence is a potential spoiler, as the one happy film of the bunch. Really all five films have about a 20% chance of winning, so you'd do as well to roll a dice as to listen to me. 

PREDICTED WIN TALLY
Roma-4
Bohemian Rhapsody-2
The Favourite-2
First Man-2
If Beale Street Could Talk-2
Vice-2
Bao-1
Black Panther-1
BlacKKKlansman-1
Green Book-1
Lifeboat-1
Marguerite-1
RBG-1
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse-1
A Star is Born-1
The Wife-1