Ranked MCU Films

With the release of Captain Marvel, now seemed like a good time to post my personal lineup of all 21 films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. I have rewatched all of these films within the last year, and have based the rankings off of my immediate impression and notes upon the reviewing. And of course, all of these rankings are based upon personal impressions, and are not meant to take away from your opinions should you disagree. Without further ado...

*****The first films discussed are certainly not terrible, but they're still mediocre, verging on bad. Thankfully, very few films fall into this section*****

#21

IRON MAN 2

Released as just the third ever film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Iron Man 2 marks a thankfully early nadir for the franchise. It is not a complete failure, though, as the first half hour of the film is actually fairly solid. Robert Downey Jr. is having as much fun in the role of Tony Stark as ever, and the action set-piece at the Monaco raceway track is pretty exciting. Unfortunately, after that surprisingly brutal sequence the script falls apart in a hurry. There is not much momentum going forward, and the film's refusal to fully commit to it's "demon in a bottle" storyline saps any impact it may have had. This film also marks the first attempts to establish a greater Marvel mythology and set up future pictures, but they are hilarious in how sloppy and disjointed they are. Though Iron Man 2 would rank right in the middle of the DCEU, for marvel it represents a distant last place, and the only of the 21 films that is hard to defend. 

#20

THE INCREDIBLE HULK

The Incredible Hulk stands apart in the MCU as the one film they are seemingly trying to ignore. Only one actor from the film, William Hurt, has reprised his role, and the events have only been briefly alluded to. While those aren't good signs, the film does have some merit to it. Edward Norton brings a solid level of intensity to Bruce Banner, anchoring the film well, albeit it is hard to see him working with the rest of the avengers. Though the final action scene is a muddy mess of subpar CGI, the films first few fights are pretty clever and exciting. That said, the film suffers from one of the weakest romances in the MCU. Though its refreshing to see the characters truly love being around each other, the actors don't have much chemistry, and Liv Tyler struggles to bring any depth to the character. The villains are likewise bland, with Tim Roth chewing his surface-level scenery, while William Hurt actually does a fairly decent job playing his role straight. It's hard to justify it as a must see, especially given its tenuous-at-best connections with the rest of the films, but it is very far from a total failure.

*****As a sign of the insane level of consistency Marvel has shown in its filmmaking, this is where I start to consider the films to be generally decent.*****

#19

THOR: THE DARK WORLD

Thor: the Dark World is, ultimately, a pretty fun "leave your brain at the door" kind of blockbuster. That said, it still has a myriad of issues holding it back. The film's cinematography and art design are overly grey and lacking wonder. It's villain is a complete bore. And, probably the most damning issue of all, it contains some of the worst attempts at humor in the entire franchise. What saves the film are the performances of Chris Hemsworth and Tom Hiddleston. Though he is still on the stoic side, Hemsworth's presence and charm are on full display here. Hiddleston, though, gives his best performance as Loki in this film. The film crackles to life any time he is on screen, and sorely misses his presence when he is off. In the end, that is enough for me to consider the film to be more good than bad, albeit just barely.

#18

ANT MAN

Coming hot off the heels of Avengers: Age of Ultron, it was a wise choice to keep Ant Man smaller in scale, avoiding having to live up to that mammoth of a film. Even so, it's hard not to feel a touch underwhelmed by the final product. The film famously started development with Edgar Wright at the helm, who left due to a lack of creative control. Unfortunately, his absence is felt, due to the cookie cutter nature of much of this film. Though presented as being more of a heist film than a superhero story, Ant Man unfortunately never really commits to that bit, and by the end is just a smaller version of what Marvel had done before. Still, Paul Rudd is a strong lead, and Michael Douglas makes for an entertaining mentor. The shrinking effects are rather clever as well, brought to life by strong effects and cinematography. The film's greatest weakness, though, is nearly its greatest strength. Evangeline Lilly gives her character of Hope Van Dyne an energy and strength that would be right at home in any Marvel hero. Unfortunately, the film sidelines her as a love interest without ever giving a justified reason why. It's hard not to feel as though sexism was in play in that decision, and though the cast try their best, its a question that nags throughout the runtime. 

#17

CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER

Captain America: The First Avenger is the first of a few MCU films that seem to be two different movies slapped together. The first half of The First Avenger is an origin story all on its own. Giving a weak but endearing protagonist the strength to be the hero he wants to be, and ending in a fun action set-piece that completes his arc. Unfortunately, the story is told by this point, and the second half of the film resorts to montaging its way through WWII and forcing unnecessary romantic obstacles to keep its love story from culminating until the end. Chris Evans is really what saves the film from falling apart at this point. He manages to find a charm and charisma that keeps Captain America interesting, despite being an old school goody two shoes. Hayley Atwell also infuses Peggy Carter with a fun power and energy, while Hugo Weaving chews the green screen scenery with reckless abandon. It's fun, and truly the only early MCU film with a sense of individual style, but the degree to which it loses steam is frustrating, as it was only a script draft or two away from being truly great.

#16

THOR

As the introduction to the cosmic side of the MCU, the first Thor film was actually a pretty solid experiment. The sequences set on the otherworldly Asgard are an absolute blast, filled with visual sumptuousness. The storylines here have a Shakespearian feel to them, right at home for director Kenneth Branagh, which helps it to feel like something more fulfilling than a standard superhero film. As well, Tom Hiddleston's Loki marked the first truly great villain for the franchise, and he would remain the franchise's best adversary for a full seven years. What holds the film back is the roughly 50% of the runtime spent in a podunk New Mexico town. After an opening fully embracing the mythology of its source material, a small scale fish out of water story can't help but feel incredibly disappointing, and has a tone of Marvel hedging their bets on such an "out there" story. It is to the film's credit, though, that it seems semi aware of this and smartly sets the film's climax in Asgard, allowing it to end on a strong beat. It also served as an important lesson to Marvel, who more fully embraced weirdness in their films to come.

#15

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

Avengers: Age of Ultron is the most "mixed bag" of a movie Marvel has yet made. Though it contains some of the coolest scenes and most interesting themes yet in the franchise, it also suffers from a lack of cohesive vision and an overindulgence in quippy comebacks. The storyline, about a rogue AI created by Tony Stark, intelligently keeps the focus on questioning the Avengers very role as self-appointed protectors. The debates around this topic are intriguing and almost single-handedly set up phase 3 of the Marvel Universe. However, the setting up for the future often distracts from the film at the present, and lends it a feeling of chaos and dissatisfaction. Add onto it action sequences that are simultaneously too long and not very memorable, and you have a film that's absolutely vital to the Marvel mythology, but falls a long way from the greatness it felt so close to attaining.

*****A very large jump in quality occurs here. All of the films from this point out are very good, and all definitely worth watching.*****

#14

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY

After the first Thor teased the cosmic side of the universe, Guardians of the Galaxy was the first film to dive headfirst into weirdness. Hell, the two best characters in the film are a raccoon and a tree. While Guardians of the Galaxy seemed like a train wreck waiting to happen, Marvel wisely hired B-movie filmmaker James Gunn to bring them to life. Gunn not only fully embraced the irreverent humor and out there visuals of the films space opera setting, but he also gave the film a beating heart, framing the film as the creation of a family. Though the film set a strong benchmark for visuals, music and humor in the MCU, it unfortunately did not do the same for storytelling. The plot is standard macguffin adventure, with a bland villain who is a waste of a talented actor. It's also annoying that the sole female member of the Guardians is the most underdeveloped, especially since she's the only one with a personal connection to the villain. That said, it still paved the way for Marvel to begin giving their directors more creative control, and led to a controversial sequel that, in this writer's opinion, was even better. 

#13

Spider-Man: Homecoming

It's honestly pretty funny that Spider-Man used to be the most popular superhero in the world by far, yet due to his late inclusion in the MCU he now feels like something of an underdog. Spider-Man: Homecoming embraces this underdog status, focusing less on saving the world and more on balancing crime fighting with high school. As a story of Peter Parker yearning for responsibility and adulthood, the film is poignant and very, very funny. The film's Spider-Man scenes, on the other hand, feel a touch underwhelming for such a popular hero. Admittedly it doesn't help that Sam Raimi's original Spider-Man films (the first two, at least) set an impossibly high bar for the character to hit, absolutely nailing the look and feel of being Spider-Man right out of the gate. Homecoming wisely sticks closer to the ground, avoiding comparisons, but as such fails to feel very substantial. Thankfully, Tom Holland and Michael Keaton absolutely save the film. Keaton's villain is understandable and relatable without losing any of his menace for it. Holland is a true revelation in the role. While he had some practice with a small role in Captain America: Civil War, he shines here, delivering both a Peter Parker and a Spider-Man that are leagues above any others who have attempted the role. Though the story does leave something to be desired, Holland's performance alone make this a must see for any spidey fan.

#12
THOR: RAGNAROK

After the much derided Thor: the Dark World, Marvel decided to completely change up the character. As a result of that decision, Thor: Ragnarok became an all-out improv comedy with barely any earthbound screen time. Taika Waititi's flair for comedic timing and visual humor have allowed this film to stand apart among the Marvel Cinematic Universe as the most directorially unique entry yet. Unfortunately, the film's attempts at action and drama don't fare quite as well as its comedy. Though Thor's journey through the gladiatorial world of Sakaar are full of wit and inventiveness, the film often halts when checking up on villain Hela's conquest of Asgard. As well, the film does attempt to through some somber moments in here and there, but the ones that aren't immediately undercut by a joke just seem to sit there, failing to leave a true impression. Still, the film's breaks from comedy are never long enough to cause boredom, and it remains a consistently entertaining, if a bit slight, reinvention of the franchise's most problematic hero.

#11

DOCTOR STRANGE

It's fitting that Doctor Strange winds up smack dab in the middle of the MCU, as it's quality is essentially split right down the middle. The first half of the film is, honestly, a bit of a slog. It is reminiscent of some of Marvel's earliest and least inspired origin stories. This section feels like Iron Man lite, and fills itself to the brim with long winded exposition, broken up by only a few cool visual sequences. Thankfully, right at the halfway point the film throws its villain and hero together and kicks into high gear. From that point on, Doctor Strange becomes one of the strongest straightforward action films to carry the Marvel label. This section of the film shows the strongest effects of the entire MCU, and fully embraces it's magical source to deliver insanely memorable images and chases. The wrapup is also very clever, avoiding the standard Marvel destruction-fest in favor of something a little more cerebral. The second half of the film would easily make it into the top three entries of the MCU, it's just a shame that it has such a rough time getting there. 

#10

IRON MAN 3

Though Marvel has long suffered from a lack of compelling villains, Iron Man 3 is probably the film most hampered by it. The main problem is that the movie sets up an interesting foe early on, then proceeds to undercut that adversary without a suitable backup in place. It's a shame because the rest of the film is really very good. Shane Black's dark and blunt humor is very welcome with Tony Stark, and it's clear that the director and star have a very good working relationship. In fact, this film is probably Downey Jr.'s strongest hour as the character, as he achieves a very good balance of drama and comedy that allows him to stretch out his chops a bit more. Gwyneth Paltrow is also given more to do than usual, although the film's mishandling of Rebecca Hall's character is quite annoying. This film also contains some of the stronger action scenes in the MCU, blending violence and humor together in a unique way. It falls short of the original, but it is still a worthwhile entry, and the first MCU sequel to really "get it right."

#9

CAPTAIN MARVEL

Due to the debate surrounding this film, I'm going to say this right away: Captain Marvel is an absolutely satisfying and well crafted entry into the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Interestingly, this film's structure is a touch more reminiscent of Phase 1's origin stories than the more experimental phase 3. That is not a real knock, as the film changes up just enough to feel fresh. Brie Larson makes for a powerful lead role, absolutely nailing the film's dramatic and action packed scenes. Samuel L. Jackson and Ben Mendelsohn steal just about every scene they're in, both of them having an absolute blast with their roles. The Skrulls are fun villains, and their shapeshifting allows the action to take on a bit more of a cat and mouse feel than the usual "punch away at everything" motif. The storyline is a bit formulaic, but spices things up with just enough twists to keep from getting boring. Overall, this is a very entertaining film that, while perhaps not really reaching for the stars, sticks to what it knows and does it well.

#8

ANT MAN AND THE WASP

Remember what I said earlier about the first Ant Man not really embracing its heist movie formula? Well, its sequel is a bit more what I was hoping for. Though others have added twists to their formula in the past, Ant Man and the Wasp is the first Marvel film to not be primarily about defeating a villain. As such, the film feels more like an on-the-run sci fi comedy than a superhero film. While the first film's editing was on the weaker side, this film uses it as its greatest strength. The pacing is absolutely perfect, moving just fast enough to keep the interest high despite the film's lower stakes. This is simply a funny and consistently entertaining film that is not trying to be anything more than that.

*****This is the final group. From here on out, these films are the cream of the crop, and any of them could easily have the case made for them being the best in the MCU.*****

#7

IRON MAN

The one that started it all. The original Iron Man created the semi-comedic tone that most of the rest of the MCU would follow right up to today. Because of how copied it has been, it's easy to overlook the fact that, at the time this film was released, this was somewhat unique. That said, this is still on the more serious side of the MCU, and doesn't really shy away from darkness and violence. Of course, the real draw of this film is Robert Downey Jr.'s performance as Iron Man. Though he hadn't been relevant in some time, Downey's ability to mix emotional honesty with sarcastic humor led to him instantly becoming a megastar. Looking back, the storyline is a touch basic, and the film lacks something of a directorial vision. Even so, this is the film that the MCU owes its success to, and the fact that, 11 years later, it is still one of the best in the franchise speaks volumes about its accomplishments.

#6

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR

By phase 3 Marvel had totally and completely nailed the shared universe concept. So much so that this film functions as an Avengers film, while simultaneously feeling right at home as part of the Captain America trilogy. The idea of pitting the two biggest heroes of the Marvel Universe against each other could have gone badly very easily, but it's a credit to the screenplay that it works excellently. The conflict in no way feels forced, but comes across as a natural evolution of the character's different viewpoints. Though the quips get a bit much during the second act, the film rightly scales things down for the final action sequence, and allows it to play out in a fully dramatic sequence. Add in great intros for Spider Man and Black Panther, and you've got an exce#4

llent start to an excellent Phase 3.

#5

BLACK PANTHER

Two thirds of the way through Black Panther, it looked like a threat for the #1 spot here. Easily the most mature Marvel film, Black Panther eschewed a traditional good vs. evil narrative and instead focused its run time on differing viewpoints of how to address foreign policy issues. While that sounds very out of place for a superhero film, Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole's script anchors it with a powerful villain expertly played by Michael B. Jordan. His Killmonger is understandable and emotional, yet still evil, and finally took the crown of Best MCU villain away from Tom Hiddleston. It also took advantage of its setting to create the living and breathing world of Wakanda, combining aspects of many African cultures and topping it with a heavy load of Afro-Futurism. Unfortunately, the film concludes all of its character arcs by the end of the second act, leaving the third act to be little more than an empty action sequence. It also suffers from its supporting cast being far more interesting than its lead. Still, its strengths are so strong that these are not failures so much as blemishes on an otherwise great product.

#4

CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER

Captain America: The Winter Soldier marked a turning point for the MCU. While all the films up to this point did little to change up their superhero formula, and it came directly on the heels of two sequels viewed as disappointments, Winter Soldier took on a slightly different tone. Though it still was a superhero film, The Winter Soldier took a lot of influence from 70s action thrillers. The result is a film that has an intriguing central mystery with one of the most important twists in the entire franchise. Yet, the film still keeps a strong focus on the personal views of Steve Rogers, giving him a far more personal adversary than was the standard at this time. While all that raises Winter Soldier to the upper ranks of the MCU, what keeps it so near the top is the action. The Winter Soldier was the first Marvel film to give its fights a real sense of "oomph." Most of the hits have a real impact, bringing the audience into the fights with the characters. In truth, this film still holds the high water mark for action in the franchise, reason enough for it to be so near the top.

#3

THE AVENGERS

The Avengers is probably the single most impactful film on the industry in the past decade. The Avengers is so accepted as a success that it is hard to remember a time when it was considered a big risk. Coming into it though, the idea of merging four franchises together carried the not insignificant possibility of Marvel biting off more than they could chew. In addition, though no films had been failures, only the Iron Man films were true, unmitigated successes. Still Marvel made a smart choice in hiring Joss Whedon to write and direct the film. Whedon's specialty, handling ensemble casts and witty banter, proved a perfect fit for this experiment. Whedon's script balanced all the Avengers mostly properly (Thor and Hawkeye did suffer from lack of focus) and his witty, quippy dialogue kept the film from getting too dour, and set the tone for the dialogue in the rest of the franchise. The characters were kept consistent and played off each other well, and the whole thing builds up to what was at the time one of the largest action sequences ever put to film. All in all, this film is just a ton of fun, beginning to end, and is only aided by its ambition.

#2

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2

I suspect this will be the most controversial placement on this list. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is largely considered to be inferior to the original. That said, there's something about this film that just works for me. I do have a few caveats, though. Neither Drax nor Gamora have anything significant to do, albeit that was true of Gamora in the first film as well. The main plot is also a bit of a slowburn, mostly suggesting conflict without any becoming apparent until the slightly-too-long third act. That said, the film makes up for this latter point with its action packed B-plot. The film also provides a large degree of emotional heft, as Quill, Rocket, Yondu and Nebula are given strong and satisfying arcs that all coalesce into emotionally satisfying payoffs. Kurt Russell is also perfectly cast as Peter Quill's father, menacing without losing the subtlety required for the plot to work as designed. Overall, this film feels like the most personal film in the MCU, and it is its focus on character and emotion that put it right up near the top for me. The creative visuals and action sequences are just a cherry on the top.

#1

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

What else could get the top spot. Avengers: Infinity War is, at this point, the climax of the entire MCU franchise, bringing all of the characters and arcs together into a plot that threatens the existence of the entire universe. While it would have been easy for this film to feel overstuffed, the excellent screenplay by Captain America vets Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely trusts its audiences to have seen the other films in the series. This means that they do not bother with refreshing information the audience should already know, and instead are able to just get on with the plot. What this film is packed to the brims with are all of the things Marvel fans have come to expect and love: funny quips, clever action sequences and gorgeous visual effects. What anchors the film, though, is Thanos. There is little to be said about this film's villain that hasn't already been said, but Josh Brolin's performance as the mad titan is shockingly human, and manages to make a giant purple psychopath, not exactly sympathetic, but understandable. By this point in the MCU, everyone involved had learned all the proper lessons in order to make their biggest film their best. Hopefully, Endgame will only continue on this upward streak.

***And now, just for fun, we'll compare the three phases thus far by their average placement on the list. From best to worst, the Marvel phases are:

Phase 3 Average Placement: 7 & 4/9

Phase 2 Average Placement: 13 & 1/3

Phase 1 Average Placement: 14

Reviews of the Oscar Nominated Short Films

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

One Small Step

ANIMAL BEHAVIOR

Animal Behavior stands out for being the only short among all three categories to only be a comedy. Unfortunately, the humor in the film is a touch lacking. The jokes themselves aren't bad, but they are all very expected. The moment you see each of the characters you know what their joke is, and the film never subverts that. It's a pleasant diversion, but even at a scant 14 minutes it runs out of steam. B-

BAO

If you saw Incredibles 2, then you saw this film. Armed with the budget and technology of Pixar, this film is a visual treat that manages to be hysterical and heartfelt at the same time. Though it doesn't quite reach the emotional highs of a few of its co-nominees, it's easily the funniest short film nominated, and is also exciting as the first Pixar short to feature a female director. Overall, a very worthwhile way to spend ten minutes. A-

LATE AFTERNOON

Judging by the animation style, this Irish short has by far the lowest budget of the animated shorts. This is not an insult, but rather a compliment in its own way. Though not as technically proficient as some of the others, you can really feel the effort and artistry in every frame of this film. As well, it is strung together with a touching story and a heartfelt ending. A

ONE SMALL STEP

Honesty time: I cried more during this short film than any feature length film this year. It's not the most visually dynamic, nor the most narratively complicated short. Instead, it simply tells its story with an eye for emotional impact. The characters are simple yet relatable. The animation is straightforward yet evocative. The story is effectively told and draws the audience in. Honestly, forget the shorts, this is one of the best films of the year. A+

WEEKENDS

Weekends, a story about a child splitting his time between divorced parents, possesses a wonderful visual eye. Its images are stylized, but used to great effect, focusing more on representing the protagonist's mindset rather than actual events. It also makes great use of music to show the different environments that each parent represents. Unfortunately, the story follows the expected beats, and at a certain point no new information is being relayed. Still, it effectively relays emotion, which seems to be the main point. B+

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Black Sheep

BLACK SHEEP

Black Sheep tells its story in a unique style. It allows its subject, Cornelius, to tell the story of his adolescence while occasionally cutting to recreations of these moments. This approach allows for a very personal Point of View feeling, placing us right in Cornelius' shoes. It also tackles a different aspect of racism than most films show: that of the self hatred that can accompany it. Powerful, emotional and visually dynamic, it is a great example of what the format can accomplish. A

END GAME

At 40 minutes, End Game is the longest of the Short film nominees by a decent amount. While there is a lot of emotion in its premise, following several individuals after they find out they are going to die soon, it makes some odd choices that undercut this potential. One individual and their family take up about 60% of the films focus, splitting the remaining 40% between five or six others. The idea behind this seems to be to kill two birds with one stone. The one family allows a deep and full examination of how imminent death affects a family, while the others show different possible reactions to the same situation. The decision hurts the impact, though, as the cuts away from the main family take away slightly from the investment, and the others aren't really given enough time to really get an understanding of their reactions. As a feature, this could have been quite powerful, but as a short, it feels as though it hasn't really figured out what it's trying to do. B-

LIFEBOAT

Content warning: Lifeboat contains images of real corpses. This short feels the most important and urgent out of all of them. It follows a German nonprofit rescue boat as it saves several hundred refugees stranded in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. The film allows both the rescuers and refugees to tell their stories, providing a gut wrenching and unavoidable understanding of a lesser known hardship that is occurring in the world. As traumatizing as some of the images of the film can be, it also serves as a beacon of hope, as there are still people committed to doing the right thing. It's powerful and timely, but for many it's probably just a little too real. A-

A NIGHT AT THE GARDEN

A Night at the Garden is a weird entry into this category. While the other nominees all involved filming and editing footage taken for the express purpose of their film, A Night at the Garden is made up entirely of barely edited archival footage. Depicting a Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden before even the start of WWII, it is a terrifying and timely reminder of the fact that our country may not be as modern as we hope. Still, the film is less "look what I made" and more "look what I found." Powerful and effective, A Night at the Garden simply feels more like a viral video than an Oscar nominated film. B+

PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE

The only one of the documentary shorts to have an uplifting tone, Period. End of Sentence provides a powerful counterpoint to the others. The film depicts women in India working to create a more accepting environment for menstruation in a part of the world where it is so taboo that many don't even understand what it is. This film sheds light on the damage such a taboo can have to its population, while also telling a story of women taking control of their own lives. Powerful, uplifting and informative, it is everything a documentary short should be. And the best part is: It's on Netflix, so you can watch it at any time! A

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

Marguerite

DETAINMENT

Even amongst the recent annals of true-crime stories, Detainment is especially disturbing. Told through police interviews with two ten-year-old boys, it tells the story of their murder of a two-year-old. The editing of this film is expertly done, cutting back and forth between the two different interviews and the day of the crime, providing a view of what happened, albeit told through unreliable narrators. It's lack of a clear resolution is the only issue, as after such a horrifying experience, denying the audience a sense of satisfaction and answers forces the crime and questions to linger in their mind, although that was likely the point. A-

FAUVE

Another tale of young boys in danger (it was a running theme in this category) Fauve rises high on the strength of its two lead performances. Telling a story of a conflict between the boys and nature, it has some gorgeous cinematography, but overall does the least to justify the darkness of its story. Normally this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but when viewed with several other hyper-dark shorts, the film's more abstract nature makes it feel just a bit slighter than its competition. B

MADRE

As dark as the rest of these films are, Madre is the only one that really feels like a horror movie. The twist is that the film takes place entirely in an apartment, with the horror happening on the other side of a phone call. Though that may not seem very interesting, it is a testament to Rodrigo Sorogoyen's directing that the film is a truly tense and frightening experience. Through uncomfortable long takes and a harrowing lead performance, Madre taps into every parent's worst nightmare, and allows for no easy answers. A

MARGUERITE

Occupying much the same role in its category as Period. End of Sentence (that of the one spark of light in a sea of darkness) Marguerite tells a touching tale of human connection. The story of an older woman coming to terms with the changing of the times through her visiting nurse, Marguerite is both melancholy and heartwarming. Presenting the struggles of aging with a matter-of-fact attitude, the powerful performances of Beatrice Picard and Sandrine Bisson sell the emotion at the heart of this tale. A

SKIN

Skin tells a small scale story of racial conflict that is remarkable in how unwilling it is to pull its punches. Though often soap opera-y, the film presents a pessimistic and violent story of unchecked anger and retribution. The main drawback of the film is that it's final sequence has a ton of unexplored potential. The last few minutes could easily have provided the main plot of the film, and could have allowed for a deeper examination of racism and character growth. Instead, the film gets wrapped up quickly and a bit too neatly. Still, powerful performances and strong filmmaking help sell this tale, assuming the viewer isn't completely exhausted of darkness by this point of the lineup. B+

2019 Oscar Predictions

Here are my predictions for who might win at the Oscars tomorrow night. It's very tough this year, as this has been quite an odd awards season. As such, keep in mind that nothing should be considered a true "lock" this year. That said, some films are more likely to win than others. For Best Picture I will look at all 8 films individually, while the rest of the categories Ill go into a brief overview.

As a heads up, I will be mentioning a "preferential ballot" in the Best Picture race. While most categories are simple popularity contests, the big one has voters rank all of the nominees in order of preference. The film with the least #1 votes is eliminated, and whoever voted for that film has their 2nd place votes counted instead, and so on. Due to this, Best Picture relies a little more on consensus than passion, and 2nd and 3rd place votes do matter. (This system is likely the reason Moonlight beat La La Land 2 years ago.) With that out of the way...

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther has made quite the splash. Highest grossing film of the year in the USA, 3rd highest of all time, and achieving easily the largest impact of any of the nominees. That said, the film wasn't nominated for directing, writing, acting or editing, and much of the academy will still scoff at the idea of a superhero film winning Best Picture. Still, the ceiling has been broken for a nomination, and perhaps could pave the way for a victor in the future. This is a perfect example of the phrase "the nomination is the reward."

BlacKKKlansman doesn't seem like a huge contender based on the precursors. It hasn't won awards from any major body, unlike many of its competitors. However, it could still be one to watch out for. BlacKKKlansman has been nominated by every important voting body, and has achieved all of the nominations that traditionally are needed to support a Best Picture victory (directing, editing, writing and acting.) This suggests that, while the film's supporters may not be as vocal as some of the others, they are very numerous. BlacKKKlansman is the nominee that will benefit the most from the preferential voting system as, though perhaps trailing some fellow nominees in #1 votes, it should get stronger and stronger as the 2nd and 3rd place votes start coming into play. It's far from the frontrunner, but definitely one to watch out for.

Bohemian Rhapsody is the easiest film to count out of the race. Though clearly the film has its supporters, it also has the most "haters" of any of the nominees, added onto a controversial director and notoriously troubled production. This is the film that will be in last place on the most ballots, and is exactly the kind of film that the preferential voting will hurt.

The Favourite is a little weaker here than it looks on paper. It is tied for the most nominations this year, possesses nominations in all of the most important categories, and won several British Academy Awards. That said, it lost Best Picture at said British awards, despite being exactly their kind of film. As well, the film's unique style, modern sensibilities and general "oddness" will hurt its chances with more closed-minded voters. Due to the sheer strength of its nominations, and simply the quality of the filmmaking, it can't be completely counted out. That said it's a major longshot.

Green Book is in a very good position. It won the Producer's guild award (which uses the same preferential voting system) and has inspired a lot of passion through awards season. It actually is likely the film that will have the most #1 votes. That said, the film has gone through its fair share of controversies, including allegations of harassment from the director and anti-muslim tweets from the writer. As well, many consider the film's views on racial issues to be too old-fashioned and over-simplified to deserve the top spot. ALSO, the film has dealt with allegations of historical inaccuracy from the family of Mahershala Ali's character. Then it missed out on receiving a very-important Best Director nomination. Ultimately, this films awards track record is most similar to last years Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which seemed like the frontrunner until hit with controversies and missing a Best Director nomination. All of this comes together to weigh the film down with heavy baggage. This won't stop many voters from rating it highly, but will most likely just keep it from winning the top prize. 

Roma has instead taken the frontrunner position in the last couple of months. It is a visually fascinating and emotional film, that is tied for most nominations and even managed to achieve a few nominations that nobody expected (which suggests widespread support for the film). It also won the Director's Guild awards and the British Academy Award for Best Picture, both reliable predictors.  However, a foreign language film has never won Best Picture before. Many members of the academy may also reject the film due to it being a Netflix film, which lacked a traditional theatrical release. It also missed an editing nomination, although as Birdman showed 4 years ago, films built primarily on long takes don't necessarily require that one. Overall it's the easy frontrunner, and has a fairly significant lead, but it's far from being a lock.

A Star is Born looked so good on paper. A classic Hollywood love story that became a megahit with audiences, containing a song that topped the charts. However, though clearly an audience hit, the film seems to be lacking the same level of passion within the film industry. Though no slouch with 8 nominations, the film hasn't won any major awards outside of Best Song. Though it was the frontrunner as recently as January, now it seems like an also-ran, and a warning that the very term "frontrunner" doesn't mean as much as we may think.

Vice was perhaps the biggest surprise on the morning of the nominations. Though many predicted it to be nominated for Best Picture, few expected it to be tied for 2nd most, with several of its 8 mentions being quite surprising. That said, it shares the same issue as Bohemian Rhapsody, with seemingly just as many people hating the film as loving it. Though clearly there is a lot of love for the film, it's going to lack the 2nd and 3rd place votes that will be very important in a year like this. 

Nominees ranked in order of likelihood

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. BlacKKKlansman

4. The Favourite

5. A Star is Born

6. Black Panther

7. Vice

8. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron is the clear frontrunner in this category. His film is very personal, with showy direction and is the frontrunner for Best Picture to boot. All of that PLUS he has won seemingly every best director award on the planet for this film. Spike Lee will get some votes for his Oscar-less career, but Cuaron seems far to much ahead to have much of a shot at losing.

BEST ACTOR

This category is a little more up in the air than it seems. Rami Malek has been very heavily lauded for his performance, in which he plays a flamboyant and likable true-life personality. That said, Oscar likes a transformation, so Christian Bale's role as Dick Cheney in Vice can't be counted out. Viggo Mortensen is also waiting on the sidelines, hoping for a vote split between those two frontrunners. Still, even those who hate the film Bohemian Rhapsody have nothing but kind words to say about Rami Malek's performance as Freddy Mercury, so he's the smartest bet. 

BEST ACTRESS

Not much to say about this one. Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman will get their votes, but there's just a general feeling that it's time to finally give Glenn Close an Oscar. Though The Wife has no other nominations, this is exactly the kind of situation that veteran actors win for. Seeing her lose would be tremendously shocking.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This category is also pretty easy to call. Though all five performers are great, Mahershala Ali seems to be the generally agreed upon winner here, taking almost every precursor award for his role in Green Book. It's admittedly unfair, as he has a much larger and more developed role than any of his competitors (he's really a lead in the film) but he's on the ballot, and he'll get the votes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This category is simultaneously one of the least predictable, and one of the best categories this year. All five nominees could win here, and all would deserve to win in almost any other year. Regina King was the frontrunner, but then she missed out on nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy Awards, while her film If Beale Street Could Talk wasn't nominated for Best Picture. (All of the other nominees' films were nominated for the big prize) Still, the fact that nobody else has managed to take the frontrunner status means she'll likely still manage to win this category. Still, any of the other nominees could conceivably win here, with Rachel Weisz as the most likely competitor (she'd be the frontrunner if it weren't for her costar Emma Stone likely taking some votes away from her). It's a very tight race, though, so it's hard to call any guess wrong.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I've been going back and forth between Green Book and The Favourite in this race. Green Book is a potential Best Picture winner, and has received much acclaim for its screenplay. That said, like Three Billboards before it, the screenplay is also where much of the controversy is aimed. Though that's not a guarantee against it, the fact that it lost the Writer's Guild award to a film that wasn't even nominated by the Oscars suggests that the controversies may be having an effect. As such, I'm guessing The Favourite will take it's place. This is the category most prone to making "cool" choices and rewarding originality, which The Favourite has in spades. Watch out for Roma, though, which could pick this award up if voter's go for it even more than expected.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No film has won this category without being nominated for Best Picture since 1998, and there is no reason to suspect that this year will be any different. That narrows this race down to A Star is Born and BlacKKKlansman.  Of those two, BlacKKKlansman has a heavy lead here. It's screenplay, which weaves a confrontational attitude into a well-crafted crime drama tale, is it's strongest asset. This is also a great opportunity to recognize Spike Lee's career, especially for voters who aren't voting for him in the directing category. Though If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? will have their supporters, the smart money would be on Spike Lee and his cowriters. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Sorry to the rest of the nominees, but this category comes down to either Black Panther or If Beale Street Could Talk. Black Panther seems to have the advantage due to its Best Picture nomination, and the heavy cultural attributes of its score (never a bad thing to have.) That being said, this category often errs towards the classical and emotional, which suggests that If Beale Street Could Talk will be the winner here on Oscar night. It's a beautiful, flowing score that is weaved into the film, that also plays very well when removed from the context of the film. It's hard to count Black Panther out, but since action scores don't tend to do well here, Nicholas Britell should be the one to find himself on the stage. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

If "Shallow" doesn't win this category it will be one of the biggest surprises in Oscar history. Little else needs to be said, this is a no-brainer, and will keep former frontrunner A Star is Born from going home empty handed. 

BEST FILM EDITING

 

This is the hardest category to guess outside of Best Supporting Actress. The only film you can count out is Green Book, which isn't nearly showy enough to win this category. The more editing the film has, the better its chances of winning here, which should theoretically narrow it down to Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice. These films are massively edited, done in a very showy style that is noticeable to even the least informed. However, this category often ties to Best Picture, where The Favourite and BlacKKKlansman are much bigger threats. I'd watch out for BlacKKKlansman, as it's in a very "editing friendly" genre, but my guess here is that the support which brought Vice to 8 nominations will show itself here. Don't quote me on that, though, as it's going to be a photo finish between all four films. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

There is a slight chance that the stark contrast images of Cold War will win here, especially if voters don't like a director serving as his own cinematographer. That said, Roma is the clear pick here, as it's gorgeous imagery has gone a long way towards the films overall success.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Both Production Design and Costume Design are basically a drag race between Black Panther and The Favourite. My suspicion is that they're so close that they'll wind up splitting the categories. Of the two, Production design is a little more geared towards world building, and thus more open to fantasy films. As such, I believe Black Panther will ever so slightly eke out a victory here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

That being said, Costume Design tends to err towards the historical. This category also often goes to female-driven films, with lavish dresses being the most surefire way to achieve a victory here. The much buzzed about, creative and cultural clothing of Black Panther will put up a good fight, but The Favourite is so exactly what the Oscars usually look for that it's hard to guess against it. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

This category is often anybody's guess, as it's provides some odd winners in the past. That said, not only does Vice completely transform its famous actors into real world figures, always a safe bet, but it's competitors likely haven't been seen by many voters. It's as safe a bet as you get in this category. 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Though it can be confusing to differentiate the two sound categories, the simplest description is that this category refers to the general recording and melding of the sounds, as well as properly setting of the volume levels. This category tends to favor musically-based films, pointing to Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born. Of the two, Bohemian Rhapsody has a lot more going on. Its musical sequences are bigger and far more stylized, containing more elements. There is the possibility that it may split votes with A Star is Born, leading to First Man winning here, but I'm guessing it has enough of a lead over Star to take this one without issue.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Sound Editing refers to the creation of the individual sound effects. War, action and sci-fi tend to do well here for this reason. As the biggest budget film here Black Panther has a shot, but it's sound work likely isn't notable enough to pull off a victory. Instead the safest bet is on First Man. The film's scenes of space travel use sound to help create a palpable feeling of tension, which should launch it to a victory here. It wouldn't be wise to completely count out Bohemian Rhapsody, though, as it will likely get a lot of votes here, especially from those who just put the same film down for both categories. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Though Avengers: Infinity war has the showiest effects here, which would suggest its the frontrunner, it's not all that safe a bet. Only two superhero films have ever won this category (Superman and Spider-Man 2) and it's perhaps the one technical awards where being the showiest doesn't really improve a film's chances. Voters often vote for the film here more than the effects, and since First Man is the only one of the films in the category to have any other nominations, it's got the best chance.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Since its release, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has been lauded with so much love and adoration, that it instantly became the favorite to win this category. Not only is it a great story, filled with fun characters and powerful emotions, but it also has an incredibly unique visual style that is dynamic, colorful and fun. You can never truly count Pixar out, so don't write off Incredibles 2 just yet, but Into the Spider-Verse is the clear choice.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Though this seems like a done-deal (Only one of the films is nominated for Best Picture, so clearly it's the Best Foreign Language Film) there's actually the possibility of an upset. Cold War has a lot of support, evidenced by it's Best Director nomination, and a surprise of nearly this magnitude occurred just 12 years ago when underdog The Lives of Others beat 6-time nominee and 3-time winner Pan's Labyrinth. Still, it's hard to imagine somebody voting for Roma as Best Picture, but not giving it a vote here, and it's 10 nominations suggest that it has little to worry about.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Won't You Be My Neighbor was a total lock here until the very moment it wasn't nominated. That snub led to a two-way race between Free Solo and RBG. Free Solo is the more unique of the two, with awe-inspiring cinematography and a sense of tension often missing from the genre. On the other hand, Vice's 8 nominations show that the Academy is feeling political this year, and few political figures are as well loved as Ruth Bader Ginsberg. RBG is the wise bet, for subject more than content.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

This is one of the strongest categories this year, but it is also by far the most depressing. Four of the Five films depict young boys in extreme danger. Though all of these films are well acted, directed and shot, it gets exhausting when they are viewed back to back. As such the film to stick out will likely be the one pleasant film, Marguerite. Featuring two wonderful performances from Beatrice Picard and Sandrine Besson, set against a touching story of human connection, it's the perfect counterpoint to the trauma occurring in the rest of the films. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Though Pixar is a dominant force in Best Animated Feature, their short films have only won four times in the last 30 years (and they usually have at least one film in contention). That said, Bao is still the most likely winner here due to having something for everyone. The rest of the nominees in this category are either funny or heartwarming, while Bao is the only film that is both. Because of this, it's an option for all voters, whether they are looking to laugh or cry. Still, all five films have a decent shot at this category, so it won't be too surprising to hear another name.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Another category where any of the five films could easily win. The best way to predict this category is to look at which film seems the most important. This year, that distinction goes to Lifeboat, which depicts the sea rescue of hundreds of refugees from Libya in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. Still, Period, End of Sentence is a potential spoiler, as the one happy film of the bunch. Really all five films have about a 20% chance of winning, so you'd do as well to roll a dice as to listen to me. 

PREDICTED WIN TALLY
Roma-4
Bohemian Rhapsody-2
The Favourite-2
First Man-2
If Beale Street Could Talk-2
Vice-2
Bao-1
Black Panther-1
BlacKKKlansman-1
Green Book-1
Lifeboat-1
Marguerite-1
RBG-1
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse-1
A Star is Born-1
The Wife-1