Academy Awards Predictions and Analysis

Well, the Oscars are this weekend and so I'm going to help all of you with your Oscar pools. I'll be analyzing each race with my own predictions, but if you disagree, I'll tell you which other contenders have a decent shot. These aren't guarantees, though, as the Oscars are usually pretty predictable, but this year has been anything but, so who knows what could really happen.

BEST PICTURE

This category has been in flux ever since the nominees were announced. It seemed like Argo, Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty were down for the count, with Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi fighting for the top spot. Then, something happened. Argo's support seemed to come out of nowhere and it took the frontrunner position and it hasn't looked back. Now, a film with Argo's level of support losing isn't unheard of (Apollo 13 similarly won most of the major precursors, but missed the director nomination and the Best Picture win) but it's lead is strong enough that betting against it would be silly. However, if Argo becoming the fourth film to win Picture without a director nomination doesn't seem right, then Lincoln is likely your best bet. It's an important and topical film from a well respected director, and it got the most nominations. Many have bet on Silver Linings as well, and its four acting nominations, as well as it's editing nom (it's not the type of film to be nominated there) seem to point to such an outcome, but the loss of the SAG award, which it seems tailor made for, is a big hit to it's chances. Still, the acting branch is the largest branch of the Academy, so watch out. 

Will win: Argo

Could win: Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR

The category where everything changed, the result of most of the surprises nomination morning, and one of the more undecided categories for this weekend's results, if only because the directors who have won the most precursors were not nominated. My bets would go to Spielberg, since his film seems like the runner up for Best Picture, and thus the frontrunner if you were to remove Argo. However, Spielberg's won twice before, so the directors may decide to go with somebody different. This would be good news for Ang Lee, whose film Life of Pi, is very visual and "directing-based", except for the fact that Lee has won more recently than Spielberg (14 years since Spielberg's last win, 7 since Lee's only). That puts David O. Russell in a spot to overtake Spielberg, though he is at the disadvantage of having a film that is seen as more acting-based than direction-based. I won't bet against Spielberg right now, but he is very far from a lock.

Will win: Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Could win: Ang Lee-Life of Pi, David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTOR

Don't worry, I won't be as long winded here. Daniel Day Lewis will win here. He has an unbeatable mix of a truly mesmerizing performance as well as weak competition. None of the other actors seem like winners, even in a weaker year, and thus, Day Lewis has virtually no shot at losing.

Will win: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain was looking like a frontrunner in this category. Then, controversy struck for Zero Dark Thirty, and its hopes in the major categories were dashed. Chastain can't be counted out completely, but she is no longer the frontrunner, nor even the runner up. Jennifer Lawrence regained frontrunner status with an entertaining and emotional performance in Silver Linings Playbook. Oscars also like their leading ladies young, which is in her favor, and most definitely not in Emmanuelle Riva's. However, Riva's win at the BAFTAs showed that she's not stepping down from this fight, despite her age, and as Marion Cotillard showed five years ago, this category is kind to foreign performances, if they are extroardinary, like Riva's was. Still, it's firmly Lawrence's to lose.

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Could win: Emmanuelle Riva-Amour, Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

One of the most up in the air categories this year. Three men are fighting for frontrunner status, though none taking a firm lead over the others. Christoph Waltz has won the most major precursors, though they were some of the less reliable ones. Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG award, though for somebody who should be the frontrunner on paper, he's shown quite a bit of weakness. Finally, Robert De Niro could take this award for a film that has a lot of support and his great role in it, but he hasn't really won anything else yet. I'll bet on Jones, as it's really the best role out of the three, but it could very easily be any of these three men.

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Could win: Robert de Niro-Silver Linings Playbook, Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway wins. This was a done deal many many months ago.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This category seems tough. Zero Dark Thirty seemed locked up until the nominations, which showed that the Academy was not as much of a fan of the film as was assumed. Thus, it seems like Tarantino will get revenge for Boal's Hurt Locker script beating Tarantino's Basterds script three years ago. I am not convinced, though. Tarantino is well respected, but Django Unchained is not the film Inglorious Basterds was, and with it's violent and pulpy story, it is very decidedly not an "Oscary" film. It could still definitely win, Tarantino is very well liked, especially as a writer, but I'm putting my bet on Amour. The film is brilliant, touching and quite a surprising experience. This category has been kind to foreign films in the past, and I think that will show again this year.

Will win: Amour

Could win: Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

By all accounts this should go to Lincoln. The film is so based around its screenplay and dialogue that it should have no problem taking this. However, this is a category that usually goes to the Best Picture winner, if applicable, which is why I'm going with Argo. Its story is much more straightforward, but it does a respectable job with it, and will likely take this award as a sign of support. Watch out for Silver Linings, though, which could swoop in and take advantage of a vote split between Lincoln and Argo.

Will win: Argo

Could win: Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

This is one of the tougher categories to guess, despite the fact that it's really narrowed down to two films. Life of Pi seems like a sure winner on paper, a culturally infused score (they love that) in a more fantastical and "pretty" film. However, John Williams did the score for Lincoln. He only scores Spielberg films anymore, and he hasn't won in 19 years. Now in technical categories they do not list the names of the nominees, but everybody knows John Williams, and I think he'll take it this year, though be warned, Life of Pi is probably the safer bet. Argo could take this in a sweep, but it's score is rather unexceptional, so I wouldn't bet on it.

Will win: Lincoln

Could win: Life of Pi, Argo

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Yeah, Adele's gonna get an Oscar. Skyfall seems like quite a sure thing, doesn't it. Now its only chance of losing is if the academy doesn't feel like giving an Oscar to a Bond film, which, since Skyfall has gotten much broader love than Bond films usually do, doesn't seem very likely. This is a fairly unpredictable category so anything can happen, but betting against Adele at this point doesn't seem like a smart move.

Will win: Skyfall

Could win: Suddenly-Les Miserables, Everybody Needs a Best Friend-Ted

BEST EDITING

Well this is nearly a lock. Zero Dark Thirty would be the frontrunner, if it had a little more support. Argo, however, is a thriller and a Best Picture frontrunner, a nearly unbeatable combo. It'd be a huge shock if Argo lost this, even if it doesn't win Best Picture.

Will win: Argo

Could win: Zero Dark Thirty

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Skyfall is beautiful, and the DP work is done by the very overdue Roger Deakins who, after 10 nominations, has not won. However, the names of the DPs are not given, so many members will not know that. Thus Life of Pi, a gorgeous film almost entirely made by its visuals, will easily win this category.

Will win: Life of Pi

Could win: Skyfall

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Another category that seems to be totally up in the air, save for the Hobbit which, despite its great design, doesn't really have a shot here. Les Miserables seems like the right kind of film in theory, but in actuality the sets weren't as colorful as is usually needed to win here. Lincoln and Life of Pi could each take this category in a sweep, but I'm betting on Anna Karenina to take this category. From what I've heard, it's production design is beautiful and showy, two things that go a long way in this category.

Will win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina's going to win here. This category almost always goes to a somewhat feminine period piece with a lot of pretty dresses. Anna Karenina has those, it's nearly unbeatable.

Will win: Anna Karenina

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Another category that often throws curveballs, there's nothing to truly count out. Hitchcock has some good period and character makeup, but it's likely not prominent enough to win here. Les Miserables could be a spoiler, especially with the addition of "hairstyling" to the category name, but this is a category that tends to prefer prosthetic effects. Hence I believe The Hobbit will likely win. It creates a plethora of dwarves and orcs, and will likely take this category just as its predecessors did.

Will win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Could win: Les Miserables, Hitchcock

BEST SOUND MIXING
Musicals almost always win this category, as long as they're well enough received. Les Miserables is so it should win, unless Life of Pi pulls off a Hugo-like tech sweep or they decide to go with the Best Picture winner, an even less likely scenario.

Will win: Les Miserables
Could win: Life of Pi, Argo

BEST SOUND EDITING
Django is the only one that really can't win here. Life of Pi could pull off a win here as part of a tech sweep, or Argo could take it on its way to Best Picture. Zero Dark Thirty could also win like The Hurt Locker did. However, this category is often the action film category, where any well received action film can easily take this. I'm betting on Skyfall to go the way of Inception, The Dark Knight and The Bourne Ultimatum and take this category.

Will win: Skyfall
Could win: Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Argo

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
If a Best Picture nominee is nominated here it almost never loses. They also love giving the category to CGI animals. Both of those factors seem to be going for Life of Pi, almost definitely the winner here. That is unless voters give their vote to The Hobbit out of habit.

Will win: Life of Pi
Could win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Animated films have been strange this year, with Brave being a Pixar film that felt like a Disney movie, and Wreck it Ralph being a Disney film that felt like a Pixar film. Wreck it Ralph didn't run into nearly the same amount of criticism as Brave did, seeming to point to a victory for it here, but the Academy is more made of older men, and I just don't buy that they would vote for a movie about video games. Watch out for Brave and Wreck it Ralph to split, though, and give it to Frankenweenie.

Will win: Brave
Could win: Wreck it Ralph, Frankenweenie

BEST FOREIGN FILM
This category has been home to some upsets in the past, but if the Best Director nomination for Haneke is any indication, the love of Amour is too much for it to have a chance at losing.

Will win: Amour

BEST DOCUMENTARY
I don't know much about this category, and it's also one that you can never truly count anything out. However, consensus is that Searching for Sugar Man will take this category, and who am I to deny it. Although I did see some interesting award wins for How to Survive a Plague this season.

Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could win: How to Survive a Plague

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
I don't really know that much about any of these. Curfew seems like the frontrunner, but really this could go any way

Will win: Curfew
Could win: Death of a Shadow, Buzkashi Boys, Asad, Henry

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Here is the only short category with a true frontrunner. Paperman has gained a lot of popularity, and it's a cute little film. It should win, but again this category is home to many surprises.

Will win: Paperman
Could win: Adam and Dog, Head Over Heels, Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare, Fresh Guacamole

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Ugh, I'm literally just randomly guessing here based.

Will win: Open Heart
Could win: Inocente, Mondays at Racine, King's Point, Redemption