Oscar Winner Predictions

So the Oscars are tonight. By now I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees, heard the chatter, and I feel confidant in picking the winners. But I don't claim to be all seeing, and I will be wrong in a few categories. If you don't feel like trusting me blindly, I will also explain my predictions and give descriptions for my reasoning in each category.

BEST PICTURE

This is one easy category. The writing is on the wall, it's all good and done. I wish the final category had some more drama, but the question is "How many Oscars will The Artist win?" not "Will The Artist win Best Picture?"

Will win: The Artist

BEST DIRECTOR

Look at the last category. I had been holding out hope that there was a possibility for Scorsese to win, but since he has been rewarded, I don't think they'll feel the need to give him an Oscar here. Another boring category.

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius-The Artist

BEST ACTOR

This is a little more interesting. George Clooney was the frontrunner for a while, but then Jean Dujardin made a last minute surge. I think this surge was helpful, and Dujardin should find himself victorious, but you can never truly count out George Clooney.

Will win: Jean Dujardin-The Artist

Could win: George Clooney-The Descendants

BEST ACTRESS

This category will likely be won, deservedly so, by Viola Davis. However, Meryl Streep is a respected Actress who hasn't won in almost thirty years. Some people may consider her overdue, but since that hasn't helped her the last several times she's been nominated, I think Viola Davis should still wind up on top.

Will win: Viola Davis-The Help

Could win: Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yawn. boring. This has been locked up since May

Will win: Christopher Plummer-Beginners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Octavia Spencer will have no trouble winning this.

Will win: Octavia Spencer-The Help

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Alexander Payne does well in the writing categories, and so The Descendants will probably end up with this award. However, the screenplay was the best part of Moneyball, so it could cause an upset, as could Hugo if the Academy decides to prove that it was in second place for Best Picture. Both scenarios are possible, but highly unlikely. This should be The Descendants with ease.

Will win: The Descendants

Could win: Hugo, Moneyball

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Ah, Bridesmaids. A popular film, probably the most widely seen of any of the nominees in this category. And this is a category where comedies can easily reign victorious. However, there is another comedy in this category that has a better shot, and less pooping in a sink. That is Midnight in Paris. This is the Woody Allen category, and he has won here several times before. His biggest competition is The Artist, which could win here due to its Best Picture status. However, I think that too many people will not vote for it because it's silent, allowing Woody Allen to win another Oscar

Will win: Midnight in Paris

Could win: The Artist, Bridesmaids

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Oh god. This category could go almost any direction. I've heard a lot about Undefeated, so I'll pick that, but truly I have no idea.

Will win: Undefeated

Could win: Hell and Back Again, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Pina

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Rango. Nuff said.

Will win: Rango

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Separation has a ton of support behind it. I won't say a loss is impossible, but since I have no idea what could possibly take its place, I would be absolutely shocked.

Will win: A Separation

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

This is a frustrating category. There is no reason why The Tree of Life shouldn't be a lock. It has some of the greatest Cinematography of all time. However, it has to fight for its victory. I'm guessing it will be victorious, but lately the Oscars have gone for technical achievement over visual beauty, so Hugo could take it. Or this category could fall into a sweep for the Artist. Tree of Life is hopefully too notable to ignore, but there is a part of me that is worried.

Will win: The Tree of Life

Could win: The Artist, Hugo

BEST EDITING

This category usually seems to go hand in hand with Best Picture. However, The Artist isn't a film with notable editing. Logic would then say that Hugo could walk away with this, although its loss at the Editors guild to The Descendants is worrying. The Descendants is too subtle to win the Oscar, but it is still a close contest between Hugo and The Artist. I've been predicting The Artist for a while, but I'm going to take a risk and say Hugo triumphs. I'm probably wrong but I can't play it safe in every category.

Will win: Hugo

Could win: The Artist, The Descendants

BEST SOUND MIXING

This category and Sound Editing boil down to Hugo vs. War Horse. Hugo is a Best Picture player, while War Horse is a war film. This reminds me of Slumdog Millionaire vs. The Dark Knight, with the Best Picture player facing the loud war/action film. I'm predicting the same result, with Sound Mixing going for the more nominated film while Sound Editing goes for the louder film.

Will win: Hugo

Could win: War Horse

BEST SOUND EDITING

See Sound Mixing.

Will win: War Horse

Could win: Hugo

BEST ART DIRECTION

Hugo should have this in the bag. It is colorful, lively and the art direction is vital to the film. However, in the case of a sweep this could be a category that goes to The Artist. I'm guessing a sweep won't happen, so this category should be safe, but if it looks like The Artist is winning everything, watch out.

Will win: Hugo

Could win: The Artist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

This category seems completely up in the air, with only W.E. safely out of the competition. This category coincides with Art Direction a lot, so Hugo could take it, but for Costume Design they like to go VERY far back, and 1920's might just be too recent for them. They only go for something that recent if it has to do with showbiz, so The Artist is still in competition. Anonymous is the earliest, so it can't be counted out, but feminine films tend to rule this category, and Anonymous is very masculine. Jane Eyre seems perfect. Far enough back in time, female lead. It should be an easy winner. However, it may have been released too early. That could come to bite it if enough people don't remember it. In the end, I think that, due to weak competition, The Artist's Best Picture status should propel it to a win here, but almost no result in this category would surprise me.

Will win: The Artist

Could win: Anonymous, Hugo, Jane Eyre

BEST MAKEUP

This year falls into the standard trio of period (Albert Nobbs) aging (The Iron Lady) and fantasy/creature (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II). Period almost never wins, so Albert Nobbs is out. Aging wins occasionally, but fantasy/creature most commonly winds up victorious. Add onto it that this is the final film of a franchise that has yet to win any Oscar, and I think Harry Potter will walk away with an award tonight.

Will win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

Could win: The Iron Lady

BEST SCORE

Score may be more important to The Artist than to any of the other nominees this year. Being a silent film, the score is often the only thing the audience can hear. It is very constant and noticeable, and thus should easily walk away with the award. It also helps that John Williams will likely split between his two nominations.

Will win: The Artist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Wow did this category get fucked up. Two nominations only, and snubs for several songs that were much better than either of the nominees. I should be calling this a lock for "Man or Muppet" since it is a much better song, but after the fuckup with the nominations for this category I don't feel confidant about anything having to do with Best Original Song

Will win: Man or Muppet-The Muppets

Could win: Real in Rio-Rio

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Rise of the Planet of the Apes has been the frontrunner for this category all year. Considering that, and that it does have the best visual effects this year, it should be an easy victory. However, it is rare that a Best Picture nominee loses this category to a non-Best Picture nominee, so Hugo could conceivably get it, although its effects are likely too subtle to be noticed by the Academy. Harry Potter could also slide in if they want to give the series a victory, but my guess is that they'll do that in makeup, where there's less competition. Rise of the Planet of the Apes will deservingly win this.

Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Could win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, Hugo

So there you have it, my predictions for tonight's Oscars. I didn't predict the Short film categories because there's really not an accurate way to pick them. You'd do just as well picking out of a hat. So I hope this helps. I'm sorry if I'm wrong. Enjoy the show and good luck in your Oscar pools.