Academy Award Predictions

BEST PICTURE'
When the nominees were first announced American Hustle seemed like the one to beat. Backlash started immediately, though, and showed the general opinion that the film was not of high enough quality to earn the award. Though the same passion that got it 10 nominations could still propel it to a win, it currently rests in a distant third while 12 Years a Slave and Gravity fight each other for the win. Slave is the more important and Oscary film, as well as having won the most precursors, but the preferential voting system, in which #2 and #3 votes do have some level of importance, could spell an upset where Gravity takes it. I'll say Slave's feeling of importance gets it the gold, but Gravity is definitely nipping at it's heels

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity, American Hustle

BEST DIRECTOR
This one's a bit clearer to call. Alfonso Cuaron is almost certainly going to win for his visually splendid work on Gravity. McQueen's only chance is an overwhelming amount of secret support for 12 Years, which I suspect does not exist. Cuaron's got it.

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity
Could Win: Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTOR
Before True Detective I'd have said Matthew McConaughey was a frontrunner. Now I'll say he's a lock. While other roles don't have a direct impact on the Oscars they do affect the amount of good will that an actor or director has, and True Detective's brilliance, largely due to McConaughey's layered performance, has solidified the strong general feeling about the actor. In another year DiCaprio or Ejiofor could have taken this trophy for their own, but this is McConaughey's year.

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street, Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTRESS
Yeah, this one was pretty much decided back in the summer.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine

 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another lock. Leto simply took hold of the race in this category early and never let anybody get even close.

Will Win: Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The most competitive of the acting races. Lawrence has a lot of good will in the industry and even people who disliked American Hustle found her performance to be entertaining. While entertaining can certainly win Oscars, in a contest it will lose to heartbreaking every time. As such, Lupita Nyong'o's emotional performance as Patsy in 12 Years a Slave is more likely to take this award away. Add onto this the fact that Lawrence just won an Oscar last year and even this most competitive acting category is looking pretty clear.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is possibly American Hustle's best chance to win an award, as heavyweights 12 Years a Slave and Gravity are not up against it. However, much of the criticism of the film is centered around the screenplay. Her, meanwhile, seems to be in the vein of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, being a quirky drama-comedy with a unique and original plot. Midnight in Paris, Juno and Little Miss Sunshine are also examples. Hustle could very easily win if people want to award it somewhere, but Her seems like a better fit for the category.

Will Win: Her
Could Win: American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Best Picture frontrunners usually win screenplay, even beating more screenplay-ish films. As such betting against 12 Years a Slave in this category would be a mistake. It is an important frontrunner that isn't facing any of its largest rivals for the top award. It's got it.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Yeah, don't expect Frozen to lose.

Will Win: Frozen

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Many of the more well known foreign films were not even nominated here. As such, the winner is a bit up in the air. Any of the top 3 contenders could walk away with it, but the general consensus seems to be that The Great Beauty is the frontrunner.

Will Win: The Great Beauty
Could Win: The Hunt, The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST DOCUMENTARY
It's never a bad idea to go with the most important film of the bunch, which is why The Square could take it, however films about the arts do well also, suggesting 20 Feet From Stardom. I am predicting The Act of Killing since it seems to combine both aspects.

Will Win: The Act of Kiling
Could Win: 20 Feet From Stardom, The Square

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Lacking a truly revolutionary score, this year's nominees are actually somewhat disappointing. Gravity will probably win due to a lack of strong competition. Sure, Her and Philomena are respected films with interesting scores, but Gravity's score is the most unique and should walk away with the award.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Her, PHilomena

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Let it Go" is incredibly close to being a lock. As it is "Ordinary Love" is another song that feels like it could be a winner. This is one of the least predictable categories, which is why I have trouble considering anything to be a lock, but betting against "Let it Go" would still be a bad idea.

Will Win: Let it Go-Frozen
Could Win: Ordinary Love-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST FILM EDITING
The rule here is that the Best Picture frontrunner wins, unless there is a solid thriller nominated. If there is a solid thriller that is also a Best Picture nominee, then that's your winner. This year both Gravity and Captain Phillips fill that spot. Phillips won the ACE award, but Gravity is more of a BP frontrunner, and is thus slightly more likely to take the win.

Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips, American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nothings spoiling this one.

Will Win: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
At first glance Gatsby seems to have the more "in your face" PD. However, Production Design is different than costume design, and will occasionally go for more subtle work from a generally more well received film, such as Lincoln winning over Anna Karenina last year. As such, I believe that Best Picture frontrunner 12 Years a Slave will take this award home, due to the poor reception that the Great Gatsby received.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: The Great Gatsby, Gravity

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
In this category, meanwhile, the gaudier the better. American Hustle could win if the voters just want to give it something, but I believe that Gatsby's colorful and plentiful design will manage to win this category without much difficulty.

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Possibly the least predictable category, this one will still likely go to Dallas Buyers Club due to its relative quality as a film. Bad Grandpa's makeup is a little more noticeable, though, so it could win for that, but I doubt many of the older voters will pick it.

Will Win: Dallas Buyers CLub
Could Win: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

BEST SOUND MIXING
Gravity is at once an action movie and a prestige picture, meaning that its chances to win this award are tenfold. Inside Llewyn Davis is music based, which does well here, but the film did not seem to have much support. As such Gravity will take it easily

Will Win: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING
Gravity will take this one without much competition.

Will Win: Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Probably the most locked up category of the year. Gravity's is a visual feast for the eyes, a Best Picture nominee and a 3D blockbuster. It's the perfect film to win this award, and the fact that its effects are so ground-breaking means that it's certainly going to win this trophy, no matter what happens in the other categories.

Will Win: Gravity

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: The Voorman Problem

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Get a Horse

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life