Here are my picks for who will and who should win the Oscars this Sunday night. (note, Should Wins are included only for categories where I've seen more than half the nominees
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: What at one point looked to be a wide open race has turned into a head-to-head for just two films; 1917 and Parasite. Both of these films have managed to build and hold onto their buzz, while most of the rest of the films have either somewhat lost their passion or are simply too divisive to win on the preferential ballot. Currently it looks like 1917 will be the one to beat, as it has won the most awards, and is a crowdpleasing film in a likable genre. However, Parasite's near universal support means that it could take the win if the voting gets down to the 3rd and 4th place picks. However, it being a foreign film will unfortunately probably hold it back.
Should Win: Parasite is such a brilliant film that has managed to find love and passion among a large swatch of the public. It's so unique, subtle and intricate that awarding it Best Picture could really help bring some of the public respect back to the Awards, which have been facing criticism as of late.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: While Best Picture is a fairly tight race, Best Director is a much easier call. 1917 is a tremendous technical achievement AND and a film that packs an emotional wallop. Sam Mendes should have an easy path to his second Oscar
Should Win: Four of the five directors, in my opinion, delivered powerful and fantastic directorial work. However, two of those four, Scorsese and Tarantino, are more or less working in their usual style. Sam Mendes and Bong Joon Ho would both make great winners. Though Mendes had a brilliant command of the technical aspects of his craft, Bong Joon Ho had to walk an incredibly difficult tightrope of tonal shifts, complicated character motivation and tension, all while keeping the film entertaining. As such I feel he deserves the win.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: No difficulty here, Joaquin Phoenix will become the second actor to win an Oscar for playing the Joker.
Should win: All five performances are great, although I'd prefer some of the not-nominated performances over any of these five. Still, I'd probably agree with the Academy and go with them in awarding Joaquin Phoenix. Though I have issues with the film "Joker," none of those issues involve Phoenix's brilliant, tense and powerful performance.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Though all four acting categories seem locked up, Renee Zellweger could be the frontrunner most vulnerable to an upset. Her film is the only predicted acting winner to not be a Best Picture nominee, meaning much of the Academy may not even see Judy, a turn of events that likely cost Glenn Close an Oscar. However, none of the other competitors this year are as strong as Olivia Colman was last year, so Renee Zellweger should still find her self on stage, although if there is an acting category to pick a surprise for, this is it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Since Joe Pesci and Al Pacino are going to split with each other after both being nominated for the same film, I see no reason to vote against Brad Pitt winning an Oscar for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, to go along with his Golden Globe, SAG award and Bafta.
Should Win: As great as Brad Pitt is in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, he is very much a lead role, not a supporting. As such, I'll pick my favorite from the rest of the nominees. Though all are great, the only one who's really going against their usual type of performance is Joe Pesci, who delivers a more quiet and restrained performance than we've ever seen from him.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Laura Dern has been having a career-resurgence the past few years, and this year she delivered an excellent performance in a Best Picture nominated film that's unlikely to win anywhere else. Though Scarlett Johansson could draw some support for her double-nomination here, She'll likely split between her two categories, allowing Dern an easy victory.
Should Win: Laura Dern performs the hell out of her role in Marriage Story, but it's not a particularly deep character. Johansson was great in Jojo Rabbit, although I felt Thomasin McKenzie gave a somewhat stronger performance. Thus, I'd give a vote to Florence Pugh for Little Women. Pugh does not just give a great performance in the film, but effectively shows her character's age by properly playing her at different points in her life, and manages to do justice to a historically unliked role, while making her more understandable. All this capping off a banner year where Pugh gave three awards-worthy performances.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Though 1917 is nominated here, the writing categories typically go to more talk-y films, likely counting it out. As much as the Academy likes Quentin Tarantino in this category, this is the best place for voters to reward Parasite outside the International Feature category. As this film is neck-in-neck for the Best Picture race, it should easily ride to a victory here.
Should Win: Parasite is not just the best screenplay of the year, but one of the absolute best of the decade.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: This is one of the most open of the major categories here. A case could be made for any of The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. Though Greta Gerwig's much publicized directing snub could lead to a swell of Little Women support, the screenplay categories tend to be the most comedy-friendly. As such, this is likely where Jojo Rabbit will make its victory.
Should Win: Little Women and Jojo Rabbit are both fantastic screenplays, but the screenplay for The Irishman manages to be fun, intriguing and tense, despite it's length and predetermined ending. It's brilliant depiction of regret is, in my opinion, fully worthy of the award.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: This will be a close race. Though most signs are pointing towards a victory here for Joker, I believe the more traditional Academy will wind up going for the more traditional score for 1917, finally awarding Thomas Newman an overdue Oscar.
Should Win: Since the Academy snubbed Emile Mosseri for The Last Black Man in San Francisco (the saddest snub of the year in my opinion) I would be happy to see the year's 2nd best score, that of 1917, awarded here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: In a weak year for songs, any of the five could conceivably win here. Elton John is well liked enough that his song "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" could end up taking this, especially to make up for snubbing Rocketman in all other categories. However, without a true stand-up number in the mix, the most "important" song could benefit, and this year, that is Harriet's "Stand Up" which, as an added bonus, is co-written by the film's star Cynthia Erivo.
Should Win: Same as for the winner prediction, "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" is a lot of fun, but "Stand Up" carries far more meaning.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Though Parasite won the ACE award, this category tends to go to the most visible editing, which this year is either Ford v. Ferrari or The Irishman. Since some may not want to give an editing award to a 3.5 hour film, I'd guess the tense racing scenes of Ford v. Ferrari will lead it to a victory.
Should Win: Just because it's long does not mean it's poorly edited, and Thelma Schoonmaker would absolutely deserve a fourth Oscar for her brilliant work keeping The Irishman entertaining. However, Parasite's perfect pacing and tonal consistency should deliver it a victory here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Roger Deakins shooting a "One shot only" war film! 1917 winning this award is the biggest lock of the year.
Should Win: As brilliant as Deakins work on 1917 is, I'd personally give it to Jarin Blashke's excellent and tone-setting cinematography on The Lighthouse, in my opinion the most visually distinct film this year.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: In a tight race between 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood I'd bet the bias the Academy tends to have for Hollywood films leads Tarantino's latest to an Oscar here.
Should Win: Excellent as Hollywood and The Irishman's recreations of history are, I believe the excellent work creating environments that are simultaneously beautiful and functional for 1917's long tracking shots to be the most deserving.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: This category will probably come down to Little Women vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Since you should never bet against the dresses, I'm guessing Little Women gets a win here. Although watch out for Joker' fans to lead it to a victory.
Should Win: As fantastic as Little Women's costumes are, The Irishman's subtle-yet-brilliant work helps tell the story, leading its characters through time, each at their own pace.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYING
Will Win: Conventional wisdom states that the most prosthetic makeup usually wins, which should lead to a Bombshell victory. However, this is one of the few categories where Joker is truly competitive, and it's instantly memorable clown makeup may stick in voter's minds more than the subtler prosthetics of Bombshell.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: War films almost always win here, as such it would be unwise to bet against 1917, although Ford v. Ferrari has a decent shot here, as 1917 is fairly quiet for a war film.
Should win: Ad Astra's soundscapes may have been subtle, but they perfectly set up the film's tone and setting.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: 1917. See Sound Mixing.
Should Win: Ford v. Ferrari's sound puts you right in the car during the tense race sequences. It's excellent effects are all perfectly crafted for maximum impact.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Though many other categories tend to go to the film with the "most" of whatever the category is, Visual Effects is a notable difference. Here, if there's a Best Picture nominee it tends to win, no matter how big the effects are. this year, we have two Picture nominees, The Irishman and 1917. Though The Irishman's effects are more well known, many have found them to take them out of the film. As such, the Best Picture frontrunner 1917 should notch another victory here.
Should Win: I appreciate when the winner here is really doing something new. 1917's effects are strong, although they contain very little that hasn't been done before. Avengers and Star Wars do not have the best effects of their own franchises, and The Lion King's execution is excellent, but the very concept of realistic looking animals unfortunately ruins the film. As such, I feel The Irishman is the only nominee doing something new, allowing older actors to play their characters for the entire film, without hindering their performances. Though there are rough moments, they come at the expense of trying something new, and they work far, far more often than they don't.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Pixar tends to win this category, but it's also a category where being a sequel is a hinderance. As such, the beautiful and unique animation of Klaus, which has been much lauded as of late, could sneak in and take the cake. Although watch out for Missing Link, which won the Golden Globe in this category.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will Win: Parasite has this one in the bag. No sweat.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: This is easily the most difficult category this year. Any of the five could wind up taking this one. Since For Sama won the Bafta, that's what I'll pick here, although I don't feel very confident in this pick.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will Win: This will most likely come down to a battle between Brotherhood and Saria. Though Saria is easily the most "important" of the nominees, which could lead to a victory here, Brotherhood is a slightly more emotional an visually distinct entry. As such, Brotherhood is the most likely to win here.
Should Win: Brotherhood is a perfectly crafted and full film. While some of the others seem like they could make great features, Brotherhood already feels like one, in the best way.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will Win: Hair Love has gotten the most attention and acclaim, and for good reason. It's a fun, beautifully animated, and emotionally meaningful film that has touched many many hearts across the country.
Should Win: Hair Love is a brilliant short, as is Sister, but Memorable's surreal and heartbreaking interpretation of dementia is the most creative entry this year.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) hits a powerful trifecta that may be difficult to overcome. It's entertaining, emotional and has the best title (which does matter) Though In the Absence's horror could overtake it, I'd bet on the Skateboarding girls and their uplifting bravery.
Should Win: It may not be as informative as some of the others, but Life Overtakes Me is the most emotional of the four nominees I was able to see (St. Louis Superman is not yet available online) and thus was my favorite.
