And now, my predictions for tonight's primetime Emmys. These awards are always a bit random, so keep that in mind going forward
BEST COMEDY SERIES
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
It's really tight between this and Atlanta, now that Veep is out of the race. I'm leaning towards the popular newbie to prevail, though wouldn't be surprised to see Donald Glover's popular series start dominating.
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Rachel Brosnahan-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
There's always a chance Allison Janney will win whenever she's nominated, but I find it hard to believe even she can topple Brosnahan's excellent performance as the titular Mrs. Maisel, which has seemed destined to win this ever since the pilot premiered over a year ago.
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Donald Glover-Atlanta
There's always a question of how important episode submissions are. If it does, then Bill Hader would dominate this category, as his episode submitted a huge range of emotion, landing heavy helpings of both comedy and drama, while Glover's episode doesn't even feature his protagonist, and has him playing a different character for the run time. That said, lately the submissions haven't seemed to matter as much, and so I'm thinking Glover will continue his excellent year with a victory here, potentially as a consolation prize for his series losing the big award.
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Alex Borstein-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kate McKinnon will put up a good fight, but that was during a year where SNL was a much bigger player in pop culture than it was this year. Borstein is one of the more prominent nominees here amongst her own show, and with a subtle but memorable performance to boot. I bet she'll take the crown here. This category is very open though, and I could easily see Betty Gilpin or Zazie Beets sneaking in and taking it.
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tony Shalhoub-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
This category is even harder to call than supporting actress, with four of the men having realistic shots, 3 neck-in-neck. I'd guess that once was enough for rewarding Alec Baldwin's portrayal of Donald Trump on SNL, although I don't feel comfortable counting him out entirely. Realistically, though, I think this is between Brian Tyree Henry, Tony Shalhoub and Henry Winkler. Winkler seems like the best bet on paper, as he's a comedy legend who has never won and has the most fully comedic performance of the three, with Henry's being somewhat on the more stoic side. In the end, though, I think Emmy voters will welcome three time winner Shalhoub back with welcome arms.
BEST COMEDY DIRECTING
Atlanta-Teddy Perkins-Hiro Murai
Though Glover himself won last year for directing the show's pilot, Hiro Murai is actually the show's primary director, helming two-thirds of the episodes produced so far. This genre-bending episode is a great showcase for the skills and style he brings to the show, and should easily take this. You always have to watch out for pilots in this category, though, which could wind up benefitting showrunner Amy Sherman-Palladino's work on Mrs. Maisel. However, I suspect that this category will still favor the more overtly stylized Atlanta.
BEST COMEDY WRITING
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel-Pilot-Amy Sherman-Palladino
Here is where I suspect the pilot bias will play in. As I believe Mrs. Maisel will also win Best Comedy Series, there is no reason to suspect its opening hour won't win here first. However, if Donald Glover wins for the Atlanta episode Alligator Man, that is a solid warning that Atlanta will likely take the series award.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
The Handmaid's Tale
Though Handmaid's Tale wasn't quite the water-cooler powerhouse this year that it was last year none of the other nominated series seem to be putting up enough of a fight to take the incumbent down. Though two time winner Game of Thrones is back after not airing any episodes during last year's season, the return season was one of the most poorly received in the show's run, adding to the already difficult struggle of retaking a victory. The Crown is actually the best bet for a spoiler, having performed better than expected during the creative arts Emmy's. Though I doubt it has the power get more votes than The Handmaid's Tale, its popularity and quality should put its tally close to last year's winner.
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid's Tale
This one seems pretty sewn up. Even if The Crown manages to top Handmaid for Best Series, Moss' showier role won't likely fall by the wayside. The only spoiler with a decent shot is likely Keri Russell, for the final season of The Americans. Final season's aren't a huge help in the Best Series category, but they tend to do wonders for actors, albeit not always enough to overcome a frontrunner with a heavy lead.
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown-This is Us
This one is a little more exciting. While Brown was the clear favorite last year, costar Milo Ventimiglia was more talked about this year, as the second season of This is Us finally delved into his character's death. While I don't think Ventimiglia will outdo Brown's votes, he could take enough away from his costar to allow a third competitor, Matthew Rhys, to swoop in for a victory. Rhys submitted the series finale of his show The Americans, and as he's never won for his excellent work on the show, voters may realize that this is their last chance to undo their mistakes. Unfortunately for him, I believe Brown's consistently excellent work as one of the most likable characters on TV, along with Emmy Voter's occasional autopilot checking of last year's winners, will lead to him repeating his win.
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Thandie Newton-Westworld
Honestly, I can see a world in which any of these seven women win this award. The Handmaid's Tale could easily repeat Ann Dowd's win from last year, or give one to Yvonne Strahovski, who is nominated for the first time here. I can also see Vanessa Kirby swooping in on a wave of The Crown support, added to goodwill from her role in Mission Impossible: Fallout. My, admittedly risky, guess is that Thandie Newton will take this category. Though her storyline was stronger last year, Newton continued to be the MVP of Westworld performers, and with three different actresses from Handmaid's Tale nominated here, lacking a clear frontrunner, I think Newton's emotionally powerful work could easily be recognized.
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
Again, almost any of these men winning wouldn't shock me. David Harbour will make a fight of it, but I suspect that Stranger Things simply isn't on voter's minds this year the way it was last year. Matt Smith could also make a play for "The Crown" (pun intended) but I suspect the nomination is his reward. This leaves the two Game of Thrones contenders. As great as it is to see Nikolaj Coster-Waldau finally get nominated for playing Jaime Lannister (which he really should have gotten for season 3, five years ago) Peter Dinklage's two previous wins show that he has a knack as a default win. Though he hasn't beaten heavy favorites, Dinklage's victories came during competitive years without a clear frontrunner, much like this one. It may not have been his best year, but I suspect that he will be the way voter's welcome Game of Thrones back in.
BEST DRAMA DIRECTING
The Handmaid's Tale-After-Kari Skogland
If Game of Thrones had only one nominated episode, or even if one was the clear favorite over the other, I would likely be betting on that here. However, its two episodes seem evenly matched, both representing one of the show's previous two wins in this category. Alan Taylor's Beyond the Wall is an exciting, action packed penultimate episode, much like Season six's Battle of the Bastards. Meanwhile, Jeremy Podeswa's The Dragon and the Wolf is an emotionally resonant finale fill or resolution, like Season five's Mother's Mercy. Their split is great news for The Handmaid's Tale's Kari Skogland, who would be competitive with either of these episodes on their own, but with them both taking votes from each other, should skate to the finish line. Had the Thrones episode The Spoils of War, directed by Matt Shakman, been nominated, that would be the likely winner. Alas, it was not, and Skogland's victory should come with a large margin.
BEST DRAMA WRITING
The Americans-START-Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg
The Handmaid's Tale's season premiere is a very solid competitor, and Phoebe Waller-Bridge's Pilot script for Killing Eve could win in many other years, I expect both will be going home empty handed. This is one of the categories where a series finale can be an incredibly sympathetic choice for voters, and wouldn't you know it The Americans' final episode is nominated here. Though I ultimately think both of its stars will not be able to ride the final season wave to victories, the writers will be the ones to take this home, where low viewership is less of a drawback.
BEST LIMITED SERIES
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Probably the easiest category of the primetime awards to pick, American Crime Story should once again be a dominant force in the entire Limited Series/Movie section of the awards. Godless would be a solid spoiler any other year, but American Crime Story is too dominant to beat.
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE ACTRESS
Laura Dern-The Tale
Laura Dern's comeback is likely to continue here with a victory for her excellent work in HBO's The Tale. Her performance is subtle, yet emotional and powerful, all things that usually lead to victory. That said, Jessica Biel and Michelle Dockery will also get quite a few votes, and may be able to ride far greater amounts of screen time to win over Dern.
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE ACTOR
Darren Criss-The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Much as everybody loves Benedict Cumberbatch, Criss' path to victory here should be relatively uneventful.
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz-The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Here is the one category where ACS's dominance can be more of a hinderance than a help. Though either Judith Light or Penelope Cruz could win, they may wind up splitting, giving Merritt Wever the win. Ultimately, my guess, though, is that Cruz will wind up with the award.
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Daniels-Godless
Showy villain roles are great for awards, and that's just what Jeff Daniels has here. Though he won't win for lead actor in The Looming Tower, he's the best bet here. Edgar Ramirez is a potential spoiler, but I suspect the fact that two other actors are nominated for American Crime story will hold him back.
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE DIRECTING
Twin Peaks-David Lynch
It's never a great idea to bet against a film director who's nominated for an Emmy, as previous years show the Television Academy loves when filmmakers "slum it" (increasingly non-applicable term) on the small screen. However, Twin Peaks missed a limited series nomination, suggesting that it may wind up losing here. If so, Scott Frank or Ryan Murphy, for Godless and Assassination of Gianni Versace, would be happy to take it off Lynch's hands.
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE WRITING
Black Mirror-USS Callister-William Bridges and Charlie Booker
Though American Crime Story and Godless are solid competitor's across the board, Black Mirror is a very respected series of television films, which are regarded mostly for their writing. As very clever send ups of technology, I fully expect their entries to dominate this category in the years going forward.
BEST REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM
Rupaul's Drag Race
The Amazing Race dominated this category for many years. However, with the times changing, the sheer amount of fun that Rupaul's Drag Race provides will likely place it above its more straight-laced competitors.
BEST VARIETY SERIES
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
It's a shame that Samantha Bee won't be recognized for consistently showing The Daily Show that she should have been the one to take over for Jon Stewart, but John Oliver and Last Week Tonight have fully Usurped the position Stewart used to hold, as the smartest, funniest and most informative Variety Series on television.
BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Saturday Night Live
Though it wasn't as notable this year as last, it would be foolish to expect anything to top Saturday Night Live for this category, though former cast member Fred Armisen's Portlandia does try very hard.
BEST VARIETY SPECIAL DIRECTING
The Oscars
Though Dave Chapelle and the duo of Steve Martin and Martin Short had very strong specials, if the Oscars could win this category last year, what with the Best Picture snafu, there's little hope for anything to beat it for a year where things ran smoothly.
BEST VARIETY SPECIAL WRITING
Full Frontal: Great American Puerto Rico
Though standard stand-up-comedy shows can and do often win this category, which would lead to John Mulaney, Martin/Short or Oswalt winning, I suspect that the more political and important "Great American Puerto Rico" will use it's different format as an advantage to take this one home.
